FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 6, 2024 at 5.30pm UK
Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough0 - 1Aston Villa
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Middlesbrough 1-3 Coventry
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Aston Villa 3-2 Burnley
Saturday, December 30 at 3pm in Premier League
Saturday, December 30 at 3pm in Premier League
We said: Middlesbrough 1-3 Aston Villa
The third-round curse has plagued Aston Villa for almost eight years now, but with Middlesbrough working around a personnel crisis, the Lions ought to avoid making unwanted history at the Riverside. A recent lack of defensive discipline from the Lions offers Carrick's decimated squad some hope of a surprise beating, but even with a few first-teamers rested, Emery's men ought to reach the fourth round for the first time since the 2015-16 campaign. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 40.42%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 35.57% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.46%) and 2-0 (5.9%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
Result | ||
Middlesbrough | Draw | Aston Villa |
40.42% ( 0.29) | 24.01% ( 0.06) | 35.57% ( -0.34) |
Both teams to score 61.24% ( -0.27) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.92% ( -0.33) | 41.08% ( 0.33) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.53% ( -0.34) | 63.47% ( 0.34) |
Middlesbrough Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.47% ( -0.01) | 20.52% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.97% ( -0.01) | 53.03% ( 0.02) |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.06% ( -0.33) | 22.94% ( 0.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.28% ( -0.49) | 56.71% ( 0.49) |
Score Analysis |
Middlesbrough 40.42%
Aston Villa 35.57%
Draw 24%
Middlesbrough | Draw | Aston Villa |
2-1 @ 8.69% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 7.46% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 5.9% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 4.59% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.38% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.12% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.9% Total : 40.42% | 1-1 @ 10.97% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.4% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 4.71% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.27% Total : 24% | 1-2 @ 8.08% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 6.93% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 5.1% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 3.97% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 2.5% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.03) 0-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.31% Total : 35.57% |
How you voted: Middlesbrough vs Aston Villa
Middlesbrough
22.4%Draw
11.8%Aston Villa
65.8%76
Head to Head
Mar 16, 2019 3pm
Dec 1, 2018 5.30pm
Dec 30, 2017 3pm
Form Guide
rhs 2.0
LT: 2024-11-21 16:56:06
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Liverpool | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 6 | 15 | 28 |
2 | Manchester CityMan City | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 23 |
3 | Chelsea | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 19 |
4 | Arsenal | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 19 |
5 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 19 |
6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 19 |
7 | Fulham | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 18 |
8 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 18 |
9 | Aston Villa | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 18 |
10 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 16 |
11 | Brentford | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 16 |
12 | Bournemouth | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 15 |
13 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 15 |
14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 12 |
15 | Leicester CityLeicester | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 10 |
16 | Everton | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 10 |
17 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 8 |
18 | Crystal Palace | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 |
19 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 6 |
20 | Southampton | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 4 |
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