EFL Cup | Quarter-Finals
Dec 19, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Vale Park
Port Vale0 - 3Middlesbrough
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Port Vale 3-2 Wigan
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in League One
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Swansea 1-2 Middlesbrough
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in Championship
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in Championship
We said: Port Vale 1-3 Middlesbrough
For the first time in their cup run, Port Vale will go up against a team from a higher division, and we think that the gulf in quality could help Middlesbrough claim a relatively comfortable victory to seal their place the semi-finals. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 40.79%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 34.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.34%) and 0-2 (6.35%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 2-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Port Vale | Draw | Middlesbrough |
34.52% ( 0.08) | 24.69% ( -0) | 40.79% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 58.55% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.51% ( 0.03) | 44.49% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.14% ( 0.03) | 66.86% ( -0.03) |
| Port Vale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.89% ( 0.06) | 25.11% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 40.19% ( 0.09) | 59.81% ( -0.09) |
| Middlesbrough Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.19% ( -0.03) | 21.81% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.97% ( -0.04) | 55.03% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
Port Vale 34.52%
Middlesbrough 40.79%
Draw 24.68%
| Port Vale | Draw | Middlesbrough |
| 2-1 @ 7.96% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.57% ( 0)2-0 @ 5.23% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.67% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.79% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.41% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.27% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.97% ( 0)Other @ 2.65% Total : 34.52% | 1-1 @ 11.52% 2-2 @ 6.06% ( 0)0-0 @ 5.48% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.42% ( 0)Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.68% | 1-2 @ 8.77% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.34% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 6.35% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.45% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.22% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.08% 1-4 @ 1.7% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.23% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.17% ( -0)Other @ 2.49% Total : 40.79% |
How you voted: Port Vale vs Middlesbrough
Port Vale
34.4%Draw
6.6%Middlesbrough
59.0%61
Form Guide
