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FA Cup
Stoke logo
FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 6, 2024 at 3pm UK
Bet365 Stadium
Brighton logo

Stoke
2 - 4
Brighton

Paul van Hecke (16' og.), Baker (63' pen.)
Hoever (13'), Rose (37'), Bae (48')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Estupinan (45+6'), Dunk (52'), Pedro (71', 80')
Paul van Hecke (8'), Buonanotte (37')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Stoke City and Brighton & Hove Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Stoke City

All competitions
Last Game: Stoke 0-0 Ipswich
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship

Brighton & Hove Albion

All competitions
Last Game: West Ham 0-0 Brighton
Tuesday, January 2 at 7.30pm in Premier League

We said: Stoke City 0-2 Brighton & Hove Albion

 A closely-fought contest was played out between these two teams last year, and another tight affair could be in store, although Brighton will be regarded as the favourites to progress to the fourth round. Neither side will be at full strength on Saturday, but the Seagulls boast a deeper squad and the players selected by De Zerbi should ultimately have the quality to get the job done against Championship opposition. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 38.74%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 35.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (6.28%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 1-0 (8.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brighton & Hove Albion would win this match.

Result
Stoke CityDrawBrighton & Hove Albion
35.87% (-0.056000000000004 -0.06) 25.39% (-0.0030000000000001 -0) 38.74% (0.055999999999997 0.06)
Both teams to score 56.28% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.47% (0.012 0.01)47.52% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.27% (0.010999999999999 0.01)69.73% (-0.01400000000001 -0.01)
Stoke City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.24% (-0.025000000000006 -0.03)25.76% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.3% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)60.7% (0.032000000000004 0.03)
Brighton & Hove Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.81% (0.034000000000006 0.03)24.18% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.48% (0.049999999999997 0.05)58.51% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Stoke City 35.87%
    Brighton & Hove Albion 38.74%
    Draw 25.39%
Stoke CityDrawBrighton & Hove Albion
1-0 @ 8.45% (-0.011000000000001 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.13% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
2-0 @ 5.73% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-1 @ 3.68% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.61% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-0 @ 2.59% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.25% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.43%
Total : 35.87%
1-1 @ 11.99%
0-0 @ 6.23% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-2 @ 5.77% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-3 @ 1.24% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.39%
0-1 @ 8.84% (0.0040000000000013 0)
1-2 @ 8.51% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
0-2 @ 6.28% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-3 @ 4.03% (0.008 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.97% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.73% (0.004 0)
1-4 @ 1.43% (0.004 0)
0-4 @ 1.05% (0.004 0)
2-4 @ 0.97% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 38.74%

How you voted: Stoke vs Brighton

Stoke City
24.6%
Draw
14.8%
Brighton & Hove Albion
60.7%
61
Head to Head
Feb 28, 2023 7.15pm
Fifth Round
Stoke
0-1
Brighton
Ferguson (30')
> Preview
Feb 10, 2018 3pm
Stoke
1-1
Brighton
Shaqiri (68')
Izquierdo (32')
> Match Report
Nov 20, 2017 8pm
Brighton
2-2
Stoke
Gross (44'), Izquierdo (60')
Murray (42')
Maxim Choupo-Moting (28'), Zouma (45')
> Match Report
Apr 30, 2006 3pm
Brighton
1-5
Stoke
Loft (84')
Henderson (7')
Sidibe (40'), Rooney (6', 22', 63')
Nov 5, 2005 3pm
Stoke
3-0
Brighton
Russell (68')
Russell (31'), Brammer (82'), Duberry (87')

McShane (39')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool119112161528
2Manchester CityMan City117222213923
3Chelsea115422113819
4Arsenal115421812619
5Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest115421510519
6Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton115421915419
7Fulham115331613318
8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
9Aston Villa115331717018
10Tottenham HotspurSpurs1151523131016
11Brentford115152222016
12Bournemouth114341515015
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Leicester CityLeicester112451421-710
16Everton112451017-710
17Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
18Crystal Palace11146815-77
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves111371627-116
20Southampton11119721-144
> Premier League Full Table


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