FC Twente and Fenerbahce square off in the second leg of their Europa Conference League playoff contest with the tie seemingly all but over.
Fenerbahce prevailed by a 5-1 scoreline in the opening fixture in Turkey, leaving their hosts on Thursday almost at the point of no return.
Match preview
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Having not lost a competitive game since the middle of April, FC Twente would have had total confidence that they would extend that run, even when playing Fenerbahce in Turkey.
However, despite taking an early lead, the Dutch side ultimately found themselves being blown away by their more illustrious opponents, helped by the 43rd-minute dismissal of Twente's Youri Regeer.
Fenerbahce would go on to score four times in the final 30 minutes to post a commanding win, one which puts them on the brink of qualifying for the group stages.
With no Eredivisie fixture last weekend, Twente will have had a week to stew over their capitulation, with head coach Joseph Oosting left to contemplate how to salvage the situation.
Prior to that disappointment, Twente had posted five wins and one draw from six matches in all competitions in 2023-24, albeit none against opponents of the profile of Fenerbahce.
While an early goal could help swing the momentum in Twente's favour, they are facing a team who have won each of their seven fixtures this campaign.
As many as 23 goals have been scored during those matches with just three being conceded, and those statistics suggest that Twente may be facing a near-impossible task.
Ismail Kartal has compiled a squad that look capable of winning at least one piece of silverware this season, with the funds generated form the sale of Arda Guler to Real Madrid being spent extremely wisely.
Of the incomings, Edin Dzeko has been the most notable addition, with the former Inter Milan frontman already chipping in with four goals and three assists since his arrival.
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Team News
With Regeer suspended for Twente, Mats Rots is in line to take his spot at left-back for Twente.
Whether other alterations remain to be seen with Oosting likely to be against over-reacting to a defeat suffered with 10 men.
Depending on what strategy Oosting goes with, veteran forward Ricky van Wolfswinkel could be restored in attack.
Having not played a domestic game over the weekend, it is plausible that Kartal sticks with the same starting lineup from the first leg.
However, Irfan Can Kahveci came off the substitutes' bench to get on the scoresheet and may take the spot of Ryan Kent.
Given Fenerbahce's advantage, Kartal could decide against handing a recall to veteran Dzeko and instead opt to pick Michy Batshuayi.
FC Twente possible starting lineup:
Unnerstall; Sampsted, Propper, Hilgers, M. Rots; Sadilek, Kjolo; D. Rots, Steijn, Vlap; Ugalde
Fenerbahce possible starting lineup:
Egribayat; Muldur, Djiku, Oosterwolde, Kadioglu; Fred, Yuksek, Szymanski; Kahveci, Batshuayi, Tadic
We say: FC Twente 2-1 Fenerbahce (Fenerbahce to win 6-2 on aggregate)
Despite last week's defeat, Twente will remain confident that they can score four goals in this fixture. Nevertheless, it may only take one from the visitors to ease any nerves of a collapse, and we feel that the Turkish outfit will have few issues in easing through to the group stages.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 43.23%. A win for Fenerbahce had a probability of 32.41% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Fenerbahce win was 1-2 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
Darren Plant
