Relegation-threatened Goztepe SK will be hoping to return to winning ways when they welcome Fatih Karagumruk to the Goztepe Gursel Aksel Stadi for their Super Lig clash on Sunday afternoon.
The two teams played out 1-1 draws in both fixtures against each other last season, which saw the away side on both occasions rescue a late point after trailing at half time.
Match preview
Goztepe were unable to follow up their 2-1 victory against Gaziantep with another three points, as they suffered a 3-1 defeat away against fellow relegation candidates Rizespor last weekend.
After Atinc Nukan's 61st-minute header cancelled out Joel Pohjanpalo's first-half opener, Halil Akbunar was shown a straight red card just seven minutes later for a lunging challenge on Baiano, a tackle and dismissal which proved costly.
Pohjanpalo then netted his second of the match from the penalty spot 12 minutes from time to put the hosts back in front, before Erik Sabo added a third in stoppage time, condemning the visitors to their eighth defeat of the season.
Goztepe – who finished 10th in the Super Lig last season – remain in the relegation zone and four points adrift from safety, as well as seven points behind Sunday's opponents Fatih Karagumruk.
Nestor El Maestro's side have struggled on home soil so far this campaign, claiming just seven points from a possible 24 available – the joint-worst record in the division – and have scored only five goals in the process, which is the fewest of any side in the top flight this season.
However, Goztepe have never lost at home against Karagumruk – winning 2-1 in the 2019-20 Turkish Cup as well as drawing 1-1 in the league last season – so these results should give them some confidence heading into this weekend's game.
Karagumruk, meanwhile, suffered their third successive league defeat when they were beaten 4-1 at home against high-flying Konyaspor last weekend.
Despite taking the lead in the 12th minute through Aleksandar Pesic, the visitors equalised just before the hour mark thanks to Amar Rahmanovic, before three second-half strikes from Serdar Gurler (2) and Guilherme Sitya helped Konyaspor run away with a comfortable victory.
That result has seen Francesco Farioli's side slip into the bottom half of the table, seven points above the drop zone and six points behind the European places.
Karagumruk – who were competing in the third tier of Turkish football just three seasons ago – have alternated between defeat and victory in each of their last seven away matches in all competitions.
All three of their away league victories this season have been against teams currently positioned in the bottom five of the table. Another struggling side in the form of Goztepe are up next for Farioli's men, however they have never beaten them in five previous attempts.
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Team News
Goztepe will be without the suspended Akbunar, while Wilker Angel (muscle), Kerim Alici (hamstring) and Marko Mihojevic (ankle) are all doubtful and will be assessed ahead of kickoff.
Left wing-back Berkan Emir and centre-midfielder Obinna Nwobodo have both served one-match suspensions and will be in contention to start ahead of Kahraman Demirtas and Yalcin Kayan respectively.
As for Fatih Karagumruk, Derrick Luckassen will miss this weekend's game through suspension after the centre-back was shown a red card in the defeat against Konyaspor, with Rayyan Baniya set to start as a result.
With Fabio Borini (muscle) and Kerim Frei (knock) still unavailable for selection due to injury, Emre Mor and Yann Karamoh are expected to continue on the flanks, supporting central striker Pesic in attack.
Goztepe SK possible starting lineup:
Egribayat; Cankaya, Nukan, Arslanagic; Paluli, Aydogdu, Nwobodo, Emir; Lourency, Jahovic, Ndiaye
Fatih Karagumruk possible starting lineup:
Viviano; Hedenstad, Bekaroglu, Baniya, Erkin; Biglia; Mor, Bertolacci, Durmaz, Karamoh; Pesic
We say: Goztepe SK 1-1 Fatih Karagumruk
Both Goztepe and Karagumruk have struggled defensively so far this season, conceding a combined 49 league goals, so we can see both teams finding the net this weekend.
Even though the two sides will view this fixture as a winnable game, there is little to separate them, so a score draw could be on the cards at the Goztepe Gursel Aksel Stadi.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Goztepe SK win with a probability of 49.76%. A win for Fatih Karagumruk had a probability of 25.84% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Goztepe SK win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (8.52%). The likeliest Fatih Karagumruk win was 0-1 (7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
