A victory by either Gremio or Bahia at Fonte Nova Arena could go a long way to preserving the top-flight status of either side beyond 2021 when both teams face each other in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A on Friday.
Gremio are unbeaten in their last three league games, drawing Flamengo 2-2, while Bahia have failed to score in three straight fixtures playing to a 0-0 draw with Cuiaba on Sunday.
Match preview
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They have been hovering near the relegation line all year long and their passive approach and lack of consistency has cost them as Bahia are currently positioned to drop down into Serie B, a division that they have not played in since 2016.
Only two of their previous nine league games resulted in victories, but they were able to stay out of relegation until recently thanks to some help from the sides below them who were losing consistently for a while.
On Sunday they played well defensively, conceding zero shots on target, but they could not generate much on the offensive side of things, firing only three targeted efforts themselves as they currently sit three points behind Juventude for the final spot in the top-flight next year.
Daniel and Patrick have done a good job of playing the role of a double-pivot as holding midfielders, but they have been let down by some poor finishing in recent games.
In their previous outing versus Gremio, they were too slow to loose balls and allowed Immortal Tricolor far too many scoring opportunities, conceding twice and failing to score themselves.
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It appears as though there is still some fight left in Gremio at long last as they earned a point the hard way on Tuesday, scoring twice with 10-men in the final 15 minutes of play to erase a two-goal deficit and draw Flamengo 2-2.
Vagner Mancini has this team believing that they can remain in Serie A for another season, but there is still more to do as they are four-points away from the salvation that they seek, however with only four games to go there is little room for error.
This famous club have not been in the second tier of Brazilian football since 2005, and with points against the reigning league champions and Bragantino, they should be feeling pretty confident coming into this contest.
Finally, they were able to win a game on the road last Saturday and even though it was against Chapecoense, they will take whatever they can get, especially seeing as they had lost seven straight away from home before that.
Getting the ball up the field quicker and utilizing their pace in transition enabled them to get off to quick starts against Braga and Chape, while their persistent running eventually paid off on Tuesday, firing eight shots on target for a well-deserved draw.
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Team News
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The Bahia backline of Nino Paraiba, German Conti, Luiz Otavio and Matheus Bahia combined to hold Dourado to no shots on target last weekend, as Danilo Fernandes picked up his second clean sheet of November.
Their leading goalscorer Gilberto missed their match against Cuiaba and has not scored a goal since October 27 but is by far their top attacking threat with 12 strikes this year, just one behind Michael for second in the league and three back on Hulk.
Jhonata Robert will not be eligible to play for Gremio in this one after receiving a pair of cautions versus Flamengo, while their backup keeper Brenno received a straight red card in what was a heated affair with 28 fouls committed between both teams.
Miguel Borja scored his fifth goal of the season to cue the comeback on Tuesday for his side as he is now three back of Diego Souza for the team lead, and Ferreira picked up his third of the campaign, moving him into a tie with teammates Alisson and Vanderson.
Bahia possible starting lineup:
Fernandes, Paraiba, Conti, Otavio, Bahia; Rodriguinho, Patrick; Rai, Ronaldo, Capixaba; Gilberto
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Grando; Rafinha, Geromel, Ruan, Cortez; Bobsin, Silva; Villasanti, Lucas, Ferreira; Souza
We say: Bahia 1-2 Gremio
Throughout the season, Gremio have underachieved, but they are showing us a lot this month, albeit a little too late for them to climb into the top half of the table. They have enough talent to get themselves out of their current relegation predicament, though, while Bahia rely a little too heavily on Gilberto and without much scoring depth after that.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 43.25%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 30.08% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (9.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.
