Brazilian outfit Bragantino travel to Ecuador on Thursday to face Independiente del Valle in the first leg of their last-16 tie in the Copa Sudamericana.
The visitors topped their group at the end of May to qualify for this stage of the tournament, while their hosts failed to progress from the group stage of the Copa Libertadores meaning that they went straight into the knockout stages of the Copa Sudamericana.
Match preview
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Independiente del Valle's Copa Libertadores campaign came to an end with a 1-1 draw against Defensa y Justicia, which was not enough to finish in the top two of Group A, ending up third and four points behind the Argentinian side.
From their six group games Renato Paiva's side managed just one win and, emphatic as it was defeating Universitario de Deportes 4-0, picking up a single point from their remaining three games after that proved to be the end of their Copa Libertadores season.
Last year Independiente del Valle reached the last 16 of the Copa Libertadores but this year they will look to replicate their performance of the 2019 Copa Sudamericana, when they won this competition for the first time in their history.
The Ecuadorian side have made a strong start to their domestic campaign, currently sitting third in their league after 14 matches have been played.
However, last time out at the Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Paiva's side thought that they had earned a point when Joffre Escobar made the score 2-2 in the 90th minute, only for the home side to allow Universidad Catolica's Lisandro Alzugaray to complete his hat-trick to win the game.
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Bragantino have also made a strong start domestically in the Brasileiro, currently sitting second after the first 11 fixtures, remaining the only side unbeaten in Brazil this season.
Palmeiras sit at the summit of the Brasileiro so far despite losing two games, as Bragantino have drawn five matches meaning that they are two points behind the league leaders.
Consecutive draws in their last two games have kept Mauricio Barbieri's side unbeaten, but they have lost ground on Palmeiras, who have won their last five.
Last time out Bragantino had to rely on top goalscorer Ytalo to rescue a point against Athletico Paranaense away from home, that match eventually finishing as a 2-2 draw.
Their previous point may be classed as more disappointing, dropping two points at home to Cuiaba, who are struggling in the relegation zone of the Brasileiro.
Bragantino's Copa Sudamericana group stage campaign came to an end with a 2-1 win against Tolima on May 26, topping off a successful start to this year's tournament by topping the standings with three wins from three.
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Team News
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Independiente del Valle's biggest goal threat comes from midfielder Lorenzo Faravelli and striker Brian Montenegro, who have both netted five times this season.
Paiva tends to opt for a 3-4-1-2 formation with Cristian Ortiz leading the line alongside Montenegro, but the back three will need to be stronger to progress in the Copa Sudamericana.
In the Copa Libertadores, Independiente del Valle's defence shipped 11 goals in six games which made it difficult to win enough games, so goalkeeper Wellington Ramirez will need more protection on Thursday to keep a clean sheet.
Bragantino have more selection issues ahead of this match with five players suffering from thigh injuries, including Aderlan, Gabriel Novaes, Luan Candido, Rafael Luiz and Raul.
Barbieri prefers a 4-2-3-1 shape and top goalscorer Ytalo is sure to lead the line again on Thursday, with fellow striker Alerrandro also an option up front for Bragantino.
Independiente del Valle possible starting lineup:
Ramirez; Pacho, Schunke, Landazuri; Chavez, Faravelli, Pellerano, Hurtado; Mera; Ortiz, Montenegro
Bragantino possible starting lineup:
Schwengber; Weverson, Natan, Bruno, Weverton; Ramires, Evangelista; Junio, Praxedes, Guimaraes; Ytalo
We say: Independiente del Valle 1-1 Bragantino
Coming down from the Copa Libertadores makes Independiente del Valle one of the favourites for the Copa Sudamericana this year, and they will be determined to avoid an early exit from this tournament also.
However, Bragantino offer a strong test for the Ecuadorian side as they are unbeaten domestically this season and have not lost in their last five away games, meaning that Thursday's clash is expected to be a tight game with nothing to split the two sides.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 39.65%. A win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 33.75% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.47%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Independiente del Valle win was 1-0 (9.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.
