Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

USA boss Berhalter will naturally demand a response from his players following last weekend's disappointing result, but they will enter Thursday's contest against five-time world champions Brazil as underdogs, even if the South American giants opt to rest a few star names. Brazil have looked a little shaky at the back since Dorival's appointment, so that should provide USA with some hope, but we still expect the Selecao to outscore their opponents and enter the 2024 Copa America on a high. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 50.04%. A win for Brazil had a probability of 25.13% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest Brazil win was 0-1 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.

Result
USA	Draw	Brazil
50.04% ( -2.23)	24.82% ( 0.67)	25.13% ( 1.56)

Both teams to score 52.52% (

-0.46)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.14% (

-1.41)

49.85% (

1.41)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.15% (

-1.27)

71.85% (

1.27)

USA Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.06% (

-1.44)

19.93% (

1.43)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.91% (

-2.37)

52.08% (

2.36)

Brazil Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.6% (

0.59)

34.39% (

-0.59)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.89% (

0.62)

71.1% (

-0.62)

Score Analysis

USA 50.04%

Brazil 25.14%

Draw 24.82%

USA	Draw	Brazil
1-0 @ 11.05% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 9.52% ( -0.16) 2-0 @ 8.92% ( -0.3) 3-1 @ 5.12% ( -0.33) 3-0 @ 4.79% ( -0.39) 3-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 2.06% ( -0.23) 4-0 @ 1.93% ( -0.25) 4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.11) Other @ 2.82% Total : 50.04%	1-1 @ 11.8% ( 0.33) 0-0 @ 6.86% ( 0.38) 2-2 @ 5.08% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.82%	0-1 @ 7.32% ( 0.52) 1-2 @ 6.3% ( 0.27) 0-2 @ 3.91% ( 0.34) 1-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.13) 2-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.39% ( 0.14) Other @ 2.18% Total : 25.14%