La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 18

Jan 22, 2023 at 8pm UK

San Mamés Barria

Athletic Bilbao
0 - 2
Real Madrid

Berchiche (50'), Vivian (58'), Herrera (88')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Benzema (24'), Kroos (90')
Camavinga (62'), Junior (79')

Carlo Ancelotti explains decision to bench Toni Kroos, Luka Modric

Real Madrid head coach Carlo Ancelotti explains why neither Toni Kroos nor Luka Modric were in the starting side against Athletic Bilbao.

Jan 23, 09:28

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Espanyol
Wednesday, January 18 at 7pm in Copa del Rey

Goals
for

Top scorers

Real Madrid

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Villarreal 2-3 Real Madrid
Thursday, January 19 at 8pm in Copa del Rey

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Athletic Bilbao 1-2 Real Madrid

This is another huge test for Real Madrid, with Athletic a very dangerous opponent. The Basque outfit have struggled to pick up wins in the league of late, though, and with Ancelotti's side chasing Barcelona, we are backing the reigning champions to navigate their way to a huge win here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 42.39%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.84%) and 0-2 (7.41%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 (8.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Real Madrid
31.53% ( -0.01)	26.07% ( -0.01)	42.39% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 52.92% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.63% (

0.03)

51.37% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.81% (

0.03)

73.19% (

-0.03)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.66% (

0.01)

30.33% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.48% (

0.01)

66.52% (

-0.01)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.97% (

0.02)

24.03% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.71% (

0.04)

58.29% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Athletic Bilbao 31.53%

Real Madrid 42.39%

Draw 26.06%

Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Real Madrid
1-0 @ 8.69% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.4% 2-0 @ 5.19% ( -0) 3-1 @ 2.94% 3-2 @ 2.1% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.06% ( -0) Other @ 3.16% Total : 31.53%	1-1 @ 12.39% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.29% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.27% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.06%	0-1 @ 10.39% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.84% ( 0) 0-2 @ 7.41% 1-3 @ 4.2% ( 0) 0-3 @ 3.52% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.51% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.5% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.26% ( 0) Other @ 2.77% Total : 42.39%