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La Liga | Gameweek 5
Sep 17, 2023 at 3.15pm UK
Estadio de la Ceramica
Almeria

Villarreal
2 - 1
Almeria

Moreno (45+5'), Sorloth (90+4')
Capoue (26'), Pino (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Akieme (44')
Embarba (53'), Chumi (84'), Puigmal (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Villarreal and Almeria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Cadiz 3-1 Villarreal
Friday, September 1 at 6.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Almeria 2-3 Celta Vigo
Friday, September 1 at 9pm in La Liga

We said: Villarreal 2-1 Almeria

There are likely to be a lot of nerves in the Villarreal camp heading into this match, but it is a kind fixture for the Yellow Submarine against a side below them in the table. We are expecting this game to be tight in terms of the scoreline but are backing Villarreal to navigate their way to an important win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 51.13%. A win for Almeria had a probability of 26.33% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.91%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Almeria win was 1-2 (6.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Villarreal in this match.

Result
VillarrealDrawAlmeria
51.13% (-0.078000000000003 -0.08) 22.54% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1) 26.33% (0.177 0.18)
Both teams to score 61.37% (0.529 0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.29% (0.621 0.62)38.71% (-0.619 -0.62)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.99% (0.65199999999999 0.65)61.01% (-0.65 -0.65)
Villarreal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.67% (0.19800000000001 0.2)15.33% (-0.197 -0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.93% (0.368 0.37)44.07% (-0.367 -0.37)
Almeria Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.48% (0.45699999999999 0.46)27.52% (-0.456 -0.46)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.97% (0.586 0.59)63.03% (-0.583 -0.58)
Score Analysis
    Villarreal 51.13%
    Almeria 26.33%
    Draw 22.53%
VillarrealDrawAlmeria
2-1 @ 9.57% (-0.026000000000002 -0.03)
1-0 @ 7.91% (-0.179 -0.18)
2-0 @ 7.42% (-0.116 -0.12)
3-1 @ 5.99% (0.025 0.03)
3-0 @ 4.64% (-0.04 -0.04)
3-2 @ 3.86% (0.065 0.07)
4-1 @ 2.81% (0.03 0.03)
4-0 @ 2.18% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 1.81% (0.043 0.04)
5-1 @ 1.05% (0.019 0.02)
Other @ 3.9%
Total : 51.13%
1-1 @ 10.2% (-0.1 -0.1)
2-2 @ 6.18% (0.062 0.06)
0-0 @ 4.22% (-0.125 -0.13)
3-3 @ 1.66% (0.049 0.05)
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 22.53%
1-2 @ 6.59% (0.021 0.02)
0-1 @ 5.44% (-0.09 -0.09)
0-2 @ 3.51% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.83% (0.046 0.05)
2-3 @ 2.66% (0.06 0.06)
0-3 @ 1.51% (0.014 0.01)
1-4 @ 0.91% (0.026 0.03)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 26.33%

How you voted: Villarreal vs Almeria

Villarreal
89.5%
Draw
7.0%
Almeria
3.5%
57
Head to Head
Mar 4, 2023 3.15pm
Oct 23, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 11
Villarreal
2-1
Almeria
Baena (56'), Jackson (90+4')
Melero (31')
Dec 5, 2018 7.30pm
Round of 32
Villarreal
8-0
Almeria
Toko Ekambi (23', 30', 36', 47'), Bacca (45', 83' pen.), Moreno (67'), Raba (89')

Castellano (40'), Arzura (81')
Nov 1, 2018 5.30pm
Round of 32
Almeria
3-3
Villarreal
Chema (52' pen.), Gassama (86', 90')
Trujillo (43'), Brice Eteki (90')
Cazorla (67'), Callejon (78' og.), Chukwueze (83')
Gaspar (49')
Mar 15, 2015 11am
Almeria
0-0
Villarreal
Dos Santos (32'), Angel Corona (34'), Velez (64'), Verza (78')
Dos Santos (40')
Rukavina (15'), Antonio Dorado (23'), Costa (37'), Moreno (54'), Pina (85')
Costa (55')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
1.15am
Buccaneers
@
Chiefs
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona12110140112933
2Real Madrid1173121111024
3Atletico MadridAtletico126511871123
4Villarreal116322019121
5Osasuna126331716121
6Athletic Bilbao125431812619
7Real BetisBetis125431210219
8Mallorca12534109118
9Rayo Vallecano114431210216
10Celta Vigo125161820-216
11Real Sociedad124351010015
12GironaGirona124351517-215
13Sevilla124351217-515
14AlavesAlaves124171419-513
15Leganes122551216-411
16Getafe12174810-210
17Espanyol123181122-1110
18Las PalmasLas Palmas122371321-89
19Real ValladolidValladolid12228924-158
20Valencia11146817-97


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