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La Liga | Gameweek 5
Sep 17, 2023 at 3.15pm UK
Estadio de la Ceramica
Almeria

Villarreal
2 - 1
Almeria

Moreno (45+5'), Sorloth (90+4')
Capoue (26'), Pino (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Akieme (44')
Embarba (53'), Chumi (84'), Puigmal (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Villarreal and Almeria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Villarreal

All competitions
La Liga
Last Game: Cadiz 3-1 Villarreal
Friday, September 1 at 6.30pm in La Liga

Almeria

All competitions
Last Game: Almeria 2-3 Celta Vigo
Friday, September 1 at 9pm in La Liga

We said: Villarreal 2-1 Almeria

 There are likely to be a lot of nerves in the Villarreal camp heading into this match, but it is a kind fixture for the Yellow Submarine against a side below them in the table. We are expecting this game to be tight in terms of the scoreline but are backing Villarreal to navigate their way to an important win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 51.13%. A win for Almeria had a probability of 26.33% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.91%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Almeria win was 1-2 (6.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Villarreal in this match.

Result
VillarrealDrawAlmeria
51.13% (-0.078000000000003 -0.08) 22.54% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1) 26.33% (0.177 0.18)
Both teams to score 61.37% (0.529 0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.29% (0.621 0.62)38.71% (-0.619 -0.62)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.99% (0.65199999999999 0.65)61.01% (-0.65 -0.65)
Villarreal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.67% (0.19800000000001 0.2)15.33% (-0.197 -0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.93% (0.368 0.37)44.07% (-0.367 -0.37)
Almeria Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.48% (0.45699999999999 0.46)27.52% (-0.456 -0.46)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.97% (0.586 0.59)63.03% (-0.583 -0.58)
Score Analysis
    Villarreal 51.13%
    Almeria 26.33%
    Draw 22.53%
VillarrealDrawAlmeria
2-1 @ 9.57% (-0.026000000000002 -0.03)
1-0 @ 7.91% (-0.179 -0.18)
2-0 @ 7.42% (-0.116 -0.12)
3-1 @ 5.99% (0.025 0.03)
3-0 @ 4.64% (-0.04 -0.04)
3-2 @ 3.86% (0.065 0.07)
4-1 @ 2.81% (0.03 0.03)
4-0 @ 2.18% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 1.81% (0.043 0.04)
5-1 @ 1.05% (0.019 0.02)
Other @ 3.9%
Total : 51.13%
1-1 @ 10.2% (-0.1 -0.1)
2-2 @ 6.18% (0.062 0.06)
0-0 @ 4.22% (-0.125 -0.13)
3-3 @ 1.66% (0.049 0.05)
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 22.53%
1-2 @ 6.59% (0.021 0.02)
0-1 @ 5.44% (-0.09 -0.09)
0-2 @ 3.51% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.83% (0.046 0.05)
2-3 @ 2.66% (0.06 0.06)
0-3 @ 1.51% (0.014 0.01)
1-4 @ 0.91% (0.026 0.03)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 26.33%

How you voted: Villarreal vs Almeria

Villarreal
89.5%
Draw
7.0%
Almeria
3.5%
57
Head to Head
Mar 4, 2023 3.15pm
Gameweek 24
Almeria
0-2
Villarreal
Moreno (76'), Luis Morales (88')
> Preview
Oct 23, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 11
Villarreal
2-1
Almeria
Baena (56'), Jackson (90+4')
Melero (31')
> Preview
Dec 5, 2018 7.30pm
Round of 32
Villarreal
8-0
Almeria
Toko Ekambi (23', 30', 36', 47'), Bacca (45', 83' pen.), Moreno (67'), Raba (89')

Castellano (40'), Arzura (81')
Nov 1, 2018 5.30pm
Round of 32
Almeria
3-3
Villarreal
Chema (52' pen.), Gassama (86', 90')
Trujillo (43'), Brice Eteki (90')
Cazorla (67'), Callejon (78' og.), Chukwueze (83')
Gaspar (49')
Mar 15, 2015 11am
Almeria
0-0
Villarreal
Dos Santos (32'), Angel Corona (34'), Velez (64'), Verza (78')
Dos Santos (40')
Rukavina (15'), Antonio Dorado (23'), Costa (37'), Moreno (54'), Pina (85')
Costa (55')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Real Madrid20144247202746
2Atletico MadridAtletico20135234132144
3Barcelona20123552232939
4Athletic Bilbao20116331181339
5Villarreal209653831733
6Mallorca209381925-630
7Real Sociedad208481714328
8GironaGirona208482827128
9Rayo Vallecano206862323026
10Osasuna206862429-526
11Sevilla207582329-626
12Real BetisBetis206772226-425
13Celta Vigo2073102932-324
14Las PalmasLas Palmas2064102533-822
15Leganes205781929-1022
16Getafe204881417-320
17AlavesAlaves2055102432-820
18Espanyol2054111932-1319
19Valencia2037101929-1016
20Real ValladolidValladolid2043131439-2515
> La Liga Full Table


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