Ahead of Serie A's final round next weekend, Lazio meet relegation battlers Torino in a long-postponed encounter on Tuesday.
While the Biancocelesti's faint hopes of a top-four finish were ended with Rome Derby defeat last Saturday, despite losing their two latest games heavily, Il Toro can seal survival with a point.
Match preview
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Lazio's first Derby della Capitale defeat since 2018 effectively brought the curtain down on an eventful 2020-21 campaign for Simone Inzaghi's side, at the weekend, as they are now destined to finish sixth in Serie A - regardless of results during the final round.
Well-crafted goals by Roma forwards Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Pedro were just reward for their bitterest rivals' supremacy at Stadio Olimpico, as Lazio's second loss in three matches sees them limping towards the finish line.
Having thrived since going out of Europe in early spring, in recent weeks, the Aquile have been humbled by struggling Fiorentina before overcoming Serie B-bound Parma only thanks to a dramatic late winner from outgoing Capocannoniere, Ciro Immobile.
Though he drew a rare blank last time out, his injury-time strike versus Parma saw Immobile reach 150 goals for the club in all competitions; since his debut in 2016, only Robert Lewandowski, Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have scored more often in the top five European leagues.
Lazio's curious lack of firepower against Roma, however, was plain for all to see, as a combination of injuries and poor form cost their 20-goal top scorer a fully-functioning strike partner.
Discounting their derby setback - as they were nominally the 'away' side on Saturday - Lazio's form at the Olimpico has been supreme this year, with their remarkable run of success in home games currently standing at 12 successive league games. Furthermore, in their last six outings as hosts, Inzaghi's team have racked up goals at a rate of three per game.
Now, with this much-delayed assignment against Torino to accommodate ahead of their final day trip to Sassuolo, a weary Lazio squad will aim to add their 13th straight success as the home side by getting back among the goals on Tuesday. November's reverse fixture with the Turin club certainly provides a template for doing so, as a breathtaking finale saw the game end 4-3 in Lazio's favour.
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Though their form in recent months had apparently seen them all but safe from dropping into Serie B, Torino have somehow contrived to slip perilously close to the trapdoor heading into the final week: only Benevento's ongoing misery seems set to keep their heads above water.
Yet to guarantee his beloved club's stay in the top flight, head coach - and boyhood fan - Davide Nicola's bold decision to field a much-changed XI against Milan last week backfired badly, as they were thrashed 7-0 on home soil.
That dramatic loss of momentum leaked into the weekend, as the Granata then lost 4-1 away to fellow strugglers Spezia, and defeat at Stadio Alberto Picco saw Nicola's squad confronted by angry 'ultras' when they returned to base on Saturday evening.
The pressure is on, then, to appease their critics by demonstrating some resolve during this game in hand, which was squeezed into the schedule after Torino confirmed eight positive COVID-19 cases in their camp ahead of the original fixture. At the time, local health authorities ruled that they should remain in Turin - amid much dispute between sporting and public health bodies - so the game was postponed.
Therefore, to avoid their fate being decided by a final-day clash with Benevento - who threw away a precious lead against ten-man Crotone in the dying minutes on Sunday - Toro must seize their reprieve and pick up a point in Rome.
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Team News
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Simone Inzaghi has expressed his regret at having to leave first-choice forward Joaquin Correa on the bench throughout the Derby della Capitale, due to a calf problem, so will now hope to call upon the Argentina striker on Tuesday.
Though his presence remains in doubt, defensive lynchpin Francesco Acerbi is definitely absent, having had one of his worst 90 minutes in the Biancocelesti shirt last time out. Acerbi's patchy performance was concluded with his dismissal and an injury, which not only rules him out of Lazio's remaining games but could even threaten his participation at the Euros.
However, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, who suffered a broken nose in last week's defeat to Fiorentina, subsequently underwent surgery and should once again play wearing a protective mask.
In attack, though, veteran striker Felipe Caicedo played only 20 minutes against Roma with a pain-killing injection in his troublesome heel, so will only feature if necessary. Therefore - pending Correa's availability - misfiring Vedat Muriqi could join main man Ciro Immobile up front once again.
As Torino approach the third of four games packed into the final 11 days of their season, their squad will be bolstered by the return of midfielder Karol Linetty from suspension, with the Polish international a strong contender to start.
Nicola Murru has been out of action with a thigh injury of late, though, and remains doubtful, but Armando Izzo returned to the team on Saturday after overcoming his own thigh problem last week and is set to line up in Davide Nicola's back three.
Strikers Andrea Belotti and Antonio Sanabria are expected to be retained as the front pairing, though Simone Zaza and Federico Bonazzoli are in competition to take the place of the latter.
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Reina; Marusic, Luiz Felipe, Radu; Lazzari, Milinkovic-Savic, Leiva, Alberto, Fares; Muriqi, Immobile
Torino possible starting lineup:
Sirigu; Bremer, Lyanco, Izzo; Rodriguez, Linetty, Mandragora, Rincon, Singo; Sanabria, Belotti
We say: Lazio 2-2 Torino
The pressure is off for Lazio - who now know that the Europa League will be their continental destination next term - so a return to penalty-box potency is on the cards, provided their key forwards are passed fit.
Torino, meanwhile, are within a hair's breadth of scraping over the line and can get the job done in the capital - just avoiding a high-stakes finale on the last day of a sub-par season.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 60.96%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Torino had a probability of 17.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.55%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.17%), while for a Torino win it was 0-1 (5.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
