Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 41.26%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 30.49% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.24%) and 2-0 (7.97%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (10.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.