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Cheltenham Town
League One | Gameweek 27
Jan 14, 2023 at 3pm UK
Jonny-Rocks Stadium
Derby logo

Cheltenham
2 - 3
Derby

Taylor (2'), May (77')
Ferry (57'), Williams (68')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Hourihane (8'), Bird (11'), Barkhuizen (55')
Forsyth (19'), Collins (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Cheltenham Town and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Cheltenham Town 0-1 Derby County

Derby County's away matches are almost exclusively low-scoring affairs, so this one should be no different, even considering the disparity between the teams in the league table. Given the fact that Cheltenham have beaten some decent opponents at home this season, it will not be easy for the Rams, who we predict to win by a one-goal margin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 48.03%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 25.54%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.22%) and 1-2 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.47%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 1-0 (8.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Cheltenham TownDrawDerby County
25.54% (0.105 0.11) 26.43% (0.109 0.11) 48.03% (-0.21299999999999 -0.21)
Both teams to score 48.13% (-0.21400000000001 -0.21)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.2% (-0.325 -0.32)55.8% (0.326 0.33)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.08% (-0.264 -0.26)76.93% (0.26599999999999 0.27)
Cheltenham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.72% (-0.084999999999994 -0.08)37.28% (0.087000000000003 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.93% (-0.084 -0.08)74.07% (0.085999999999999 0.09)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.74% (-0.236 -0.24)23.26% (0.237 0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.82% (-0.344 -0.34)57.18% (0.34699999999999 0.35)
Score Analysis
    Cheltenham Town 25.55%
    Derby County 48.02%
    Draw 26.42%
Cheltenham TownDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 8.56% (0.087 0.09)
2-1 @ 6.16% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-0 @ 4.22% (0.033 0.03)
3-1 @ 2.02% (-0.004 -0)
3-2 @ 1.48% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-0 @ 1.39% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 1.72%
Total : 25.55%
1-1 @ 12.47% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 8.67% (0.109 0.11)
2-2 @ 4.49% (-0.028 -0.03)
Other @ 0.79%
Total : 26.42%
0-1 @ 12.64% (0.07 0.07)
0-2 @ 9.22% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-2 @ 9.1% (-0.034000000000001 -0.03)
0-3 @ 4.48% (-0.038 -0.04)
1-3 @ 4.42% (-0.048 -0.05)
2-3 @ 2.18% (-0.029 -0.03)
0-4 @ 1.64% (-0.025 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.61% (-0.029 -0.03)
Other @ 2.72%
Total : 48.02%

How you voted: Cheltenham vs Derby

Cheltenham Town
7.1%
Draw
14.3%
Derby County
78.6%
14
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham1292123111229
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe1282226161026
3Wrexham1374221101125
4Mansfield TownMansfield127322014624
5Lincoln CityLincoln137332016424
6Bolton WanderersBolton137242219323
7Huddersfield TownHuddersfield137151912722
8Barnsley136432118322
9Reading137152120122
10Stockport CountyStockport135622012821
11Exeter CityExeter126151310319
12Charlton AthleticCharlton135441514119
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough145362526-118
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham144551416-217
15Stevenage145271015-517
16Blackpool134452125-416
17Bristol Rovers135171520-516
18Northampton TownNorthampton134361720-315
19Wigan AthleticWigan133551211114
20Leyton Orient133281118-711
21Cambridge UnitedCambridge123181117-610
22Crawley TownCrawley133191225-1310
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1422101325-128
24Burton Albion120481325-124


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