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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 48.03%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 25.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.22%) and 1-2 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.47%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 1-0 (8.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result | ||
Cheltenham Town | Draw | Derby County |
25.54% ( 0.11) | 26.43% ( 0.11) | 48.03% ( -0.21) |
Both teams to score 48.13% ( -0.21) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.2% ( -0.32) | 55.8% ( 0.33) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.08% ( -0.26) | 76.93% ( 0.27) |
Cheltenham Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.72% ( -0.08) | 37.28% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.93% ( -0.08) | 74.07% ( 0.09) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.74% ( -0.24) | 23.26% ( 0.24) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.82% ( -0.34) | 57.18% ( 0.35) |
Score Analysis |
Cheltenham Town | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 8.56% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 6.16% ( 0) 2-0 @ 4.22% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 2.02% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.39% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.72% Total : 25.55% | 1-1 @ 12.47% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 8.67% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.79% Total : 26.42% | 0-1 @ 12.64% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 9.22% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 9.1% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 4.48% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 4.42% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.03) 0-4 @ 1.64% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.61% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.72% Total : 48.02% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
2 | Wrexham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 17 |
3 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
4 | Blackpool | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 14 |
5 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
6 | Barnsley | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 13 |
8 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
9 | Stockport CountyStockport | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 12 |
10 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 12 |
11 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 11 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
14 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
15 | Reading | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
16 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
17 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
18 | Leyton Orient | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
19 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
20 | Crawley TownCrawley | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
21 | Bristol Rovers | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
22 | Burton Albion | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
24 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 1 |
> League One Full Table |