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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morecambe win with a probability of 42.51%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morecambe win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 0-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Morecambe would win this match.
Result | ||
Morecambe | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
42.51% ( 2.18) | 25.53% ( -1.84) | 31.95% ( -0.34) |
Both teams to score 54.84% ( 5.68) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.03% ( 7.34) | 48.96% ( -7.34) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.95% ( 6.28) | 71.05% ( -6.28) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.08% ( 4.44) | 22.92% ( -4.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.31% ( 6.14) | 56.68% ( -6.14) |
Cheltenham Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.15% ( 3.46) | 28.85% ( -3.47) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.28% ( 4.1) | 64.71% ( -4.11) |
Score Analysis |
Morecambe | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
1-0 @ 9.74% ( -1.72) 2-1 @ 8.92% ( 0.53) 2-0 @ 7.18% ( -0.25) 3-1 @ 4.38% ( 0.76) 3-0 @ 3.52% ( 0.32) 3-2 @ 2.72% ( 0.68) 4-1 @ 1.61% ( 0.44) 4-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.26) 4-2 @ 1% ( 0.34) Other @ 2.14% Total : 42.51% | 1-1 @ 12.1% ( -0.84) 0-0 @ 6.61% ( -2.23) 2-2 @ 5.54% ( 0.81) 3-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.36) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.52% | 0-1 @ 8.22% ( -1.77) 1-2 @ 7.53% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 5.11% ( -0.53) 1-3 @ 3.12% ( 0.37) 2-3 @ 2.3% ( 0.51) 0-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.19) Other @ 2.6% Total : 31.96% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
2 | Wrexham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 17 |
3 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
4 | Blackpool | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 14 |
5 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
6 | Barnsley | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 13 |
8 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
9 | Stockport CountyStockport | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 12 |
10 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 12 |
11 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 11 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
14 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
15 | Reading | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
16 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
17 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
18 | Leyton Orient | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
19 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
20 | Crawley TownCrawley | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
21 | Bristol Rovers | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
22 | Burton Albion | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
24 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 1 |
> League One Full Table |