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League One | Gameweek 28
Jan 21, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Bolton logo

Derby
2 - 1
Bolton

Mendez-Laing (16'), Hourihane (72')
Hourihane (45+1')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Sadlier (90+3')
Johnston (16')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Bolton Wanderers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Derby County 1-1 Bolton Wanderers

As the league table suggests, there is very little to separate Derby and Bolton at the moment, and both sides head into this clash on impressive unbeaten streaks.    Derby boast the second-best defensive record in the division, while Bolton have the third-best defensive record, meaning Saturday's game should be a low-scoring affair, with both teams looking to preserve their respective unbeaten runs. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 51.03%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 24.24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.76%), while for a Bolton Wanderers win it was 0-1 (7.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawBolton Wanderers
51.03% (0.007000000000005 0.01) 24.73% (-0.0040000000000013 -0) 24.24% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Both teams to score 51.9% (0.012 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.76% (0.018000000000001 0.02)50.24% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.8% (0.015000000000001 0.02)72.2% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.31% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)19.69% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.32% (0.015999999999998 0.02)51.68% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Bolton Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.62% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)35.38% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.86% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)72.14% (-0.0080000000000098 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 51.03%
    Bolton Wanderers 24.24%
    Draw 24.73%
Derby CountyDrawBolton Wanderers
1-0 @ 11.32%
2-1 @ 9.56% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 9.2% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 5.18% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-0 @ 4.98% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-2 @ 2.69% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-1 @ 2.1% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-0 @ 2.03% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1.09% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 51.03%
1-1 @ 11.76%
0-0 @ 6.97% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-2 @ 4.97% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-3 @ 0.93% (0.001 0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 24.73%
0-1 @ 7.24% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-2 @ 6.11%
0-2 @ 3.76% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-3 @ 2.12%
2-3 @ 1.72% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.3%
Other @ 2%
Total : 24.24%

How you voted: Derby vs Bolton

Derby County
60.9%
Draw
26.1%
Bolton Wanderers
13.0%
23
Head to Head
Dec 27, 2022 3pm
Apr 13, 2019 3pm
Derby
4-0
Bolton
Bryson (37'), Mount (45', 55', 82')
Johnson (28')

Ameobi (31')
Sep 29, 2018 3pm
Bolton
1-0
Derby
Noone (10')
Magennis (25'), Olkowski (28'), Lowe (45')

Johnson (44')
Apr 7, 2018 3pm
Derby
3-0
Bolton
Pearce (6'), Vydra (33'), Lawrence (54')
Baird (80')

le Fondre (78')
Aug 19, 2017 3pm
Bolton
1-2
Derby
Madine (92')
Karacan (35'), Beevers (57')
Nugent (8', 21')
Wisdom (79')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
1.15am
Buccaneers
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Chiefs
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham1292123111229
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe1282226161026
3Wrexham1374221101125
4Mansfield TownMansfield127322014624
5Lincoln CityLincoln137332016424
6Bolton WanderersBolton137242219323
7Huddersfield TownHuddersfield137151912722
8Barnsley136432118322
9Reading137152120122
10Stockport CountyStockport135622012821
11Exeter CityExeter126151310319
12Charlton AthleticCharlton135441514119
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough145362526-118
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham144551416-217
15Stevenage145271015-517
16Blackpool134452125-416
17Bristol Rovers135171520-516
18Northampton TownNorthampton134361720-315
19Wigan AthleticWigan133551211114
20Leyton Orient133281118-711
21Cambridge UnitedCambridge123181117-610
22Crawley TownCrawley133191225-1310
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1422101325-128
24Burton Albion120481325-124


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