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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 51.03%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 24.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.76%), while for a Bolton Wanderers win it was 0-1 (7.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
51.03% ( 0.01) | 24.73% ( -0) | 24.24% ( -0) |
Both teams to score 51.9% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.76% ( 0.02) | 50.24% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.8% ( 0.02) | 72.2% ( -0.02) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.31% ( 0.01) | 19.69% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.32% ( 0.02) | 51.68% ( -0.02) |
Bolton Wanderers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.62% ( 0.01) | 35.38% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.86% ( 0.01) | 72.14% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
1-0 @ 11.32% 2-1 @ 9.56% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.2% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.18% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.98% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.69% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.1% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.03% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.09% ( 0) Other @ 2.88% Total : 51.03% | 1-1 @ 11.76% 0-0 @ 6.97% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.97% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.73% | 0-1 @ 7.24% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6.11% 0-2 @ 3.76% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.12% 2-3 @ 1.72% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.3% Other @ 2% Total : 24.24% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
2 | Wrexham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 17 |
3 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
4 | Blackpool | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 14 |
5 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
6 | Barnsley | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 13 |
8 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
9 | Stockport CountyStockport | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 12 |
10 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 12 |
11 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 11 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
14 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
15 | Reading | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
16 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
17 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
18 | Leyton Orient | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
19 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
20 | Crawley TownCrawley | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
21 | Bristol Rovers | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
22 | Burton Albion | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
24 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 1 |
> League One Full Table |