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Championship header 2

League One
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League One | Gameweek 28
Jan 21, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
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Derby
2 - 1
Bolton

Mendez-Laing (16'), Hourihane (72')
Hourihane (45+1')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Sadlier (90+3')
Johnston (16')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Bolton Wanderers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Cheltenham 2-3 Derby
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in League One

Bolton Wanderers

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Bolton 3-0 Portsmouth
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 1-1 Bolton Wanderers

 As the league table suggests, there is very little to separate Derby and Bolton at the moment, and both sides head into this clash on impressive unbeaten streaks.    Derby boast the second-best defensive record in the division, while Bolton have the third-best defensive record, meaning Saturday's game should be a low-scoring affair, with both teams looking to preserve their respective unbeaten runs. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 51.03%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 24.24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.76%), while for a Bolton Wanderers win it was 0-1 (7.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawBolton Wanderers
51.03% (0.007000000000005 0.01) 24.73% (-0.0040000000000013 -0) 24.24% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Both teams to score 51.9% (0.012 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.76% (0.018000000000001 0.02)50.24% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.8% (0.015000000000001 0.02)72.2% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.31% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)19.69% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.32% (0.015999999999998 0.02)51.68% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Bolton Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.62% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)35.38% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.86% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)72.14% (-0.0080000000000098 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 51.03%
    Bolton Wanderers 24.24%
    Draw 24.73%
Derby CountyDrawBolton Wanderers
1-0 @ 11.32%
2-1 @ 9.56% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 9.2% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 5.18% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-0 @ 4.98% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-2 @ 2.69% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-1 @ 2.1% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-0 @ 2.03% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1.09% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 51.03%
1-1 @ 11.76%
0-0 @ 6.97% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-2 @ 4.97% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-3 @ 0.93% (0.001 0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 24.73%
0-1 @ 7.24% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-2 @ 6.11%
0-2 @ 3.76% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-3 @ 2.12%
2-3 @ 1.72% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.3%
Other @ 2%
Total : 24.24%

How you voted: Derby vs Bolton

Derby County
60.9%
Draw
26.1%
Bolton Wanderers
13.0%
23
Head to Head
Dec 27, 2022 3pm
Bolton
0-0
Derby

Forsyth (26')
Apr 13, 2019 3pm
Derby
4-0
Bolton
Bryson (37'), Mount (45', 55', 82')
Johnson (28')

Ameobi (31')
> Match Report
Sep 29, 2018 3pm
Bolton
1-0
Derby
Noone (10')
Magennis (25'), Olkowski (28'), Lowe (45')

Johnson (44')
Apr 7, 2018 3pm
Derby
3-0
Bolton
Pearce (6'), Vydra (33'), Lawrence (54')
Baird (80')

le Fondre (78')
Aug 19, 2017 3pm
Bolton
1-2
Derby
Madine (92')
Karacan (35'), Beevers (57')
Nugent (8', 21')
Wisdom (79')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham26186244182660
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe28177454292558
3Wrexham28157641241752
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield27146739231648
5Stockport CountyStockport28138743281547
6Leyton Orient27135940241644
7Bolton WanderersBolton28135104342144
8Charlton AthleticCharlton2712783426843
9Barnsley28126104139242
10Reading27125104241141
11Lincoln CityLincoln28108103433138
12Mansfield TownMansfield26114113432237
13Blackpool2791083938137
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham27107103231137
15Stevenage2610792324-137
16Wigan AthleticWigan2796122627-133
17Exeter CityExeter2895143242-1032
18Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2886144452-830
19Bristol Rovers2784152543-1828
20Northampton TownNorthampton2869132543-1827
21Burton Albion2859143044-1424
22Crawley TownCrawley2666142646-2024
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge2756162849-2121
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2755172647-2120
> League One Full Table


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