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League One
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League One | Gameweek 28
Jan 15, 2024 at 8pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Burton Albion

Derby
3 - 2
Burton Albion

Barkhuizen (29'), Collins (49'), Hourihane (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Seddon (54'), Hugill (65')
Oshilaja (64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League One clash between Derby County and Burton Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 0-1 Bradford
Tuesday, January 9 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Burton Albion

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Blackpool 2-1 Burton Albion
Wednesday, January 10 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

We said: Derby County 2-0 Burton Albion

 Derby cruised to a 3-0 win in the reverse fixture in August, and we think that they will claim another win against Burton to move into the League One promotion places. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 70.39%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 11.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.01%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.34%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (3.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawBurton Albion
70.39% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 17.65% (0.0030000000000001 0) 11.95% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Both teams to score 50.86% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.62% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)39.37% (0.010000000000005 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.28% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)61.71% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.99% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)10.01% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.95% (-0.0099999999999909 -0.01)33.05% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Burton Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.51% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)43.48% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.3% (-0.004999999999999 -0)79.7% (0.0050000000000097 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 70.38%
    Burton Albion 11.95%
    Draw 17.65%
Derby CountyDrawBurton Albion
2-0 @ 11.52%
1-0 @ 10.01%
2-1 @ 9.6% (0.0010000000000012 0)
3-0 @ 8.85% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 7.37% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-0 @ 5.09% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-1 @ 4.24% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-2 @ 3.07% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-0 @ 2.34% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-1 @ 1.95% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.77% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 4.58%
Total : 70.38%
1-1 @ 8.34% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-0 @ 4.35% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-2 @ 4%
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 17.65%
0-1 @ 3.63% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-2 @ 3.47% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 1.51%
2-3 @ 1.11%
1-3 @ 0.96%
Other @ 1.27%
Total : 11.95%

How you voted: Derby vs Burton Albion

Derby County
82.9%
Draw
8.6%
Burton Albion
8.6%
35
Head to Head
Aug 12, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 2
Burton Albion
0-3
Derby

Seddon (2'), Maamria (3')
Collins (6'), Hourihane (78'), Washington (84')
Mendez-Laing (45+2'), Hourihane (66'), Cashin (90+6')
> Preview
Apr 22, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 44
Derby
1-0
Burton Albion
McGoldrick (63' pen.)
Dec 10, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 21
Burton Albion
1-1
Derby
Adeboyejo (79')
Collins (23')
> Preview
Jul 20, 2019 3pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Burton Albion
2-5
Derby
Brayford (22'), Fraser (51')
Waghorn (16', 28', 37'), Bennett (47'), Bird (93')
Apr 14, 2018 3pm
Burton Albion
3-1
Derby
Boyce (24'), Murphy (44'), Akins (68')
Buxton (39'), Brayford (63'), Akpan (77')
Nugent (29')
Huddlestone (49')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe19134243222143
2Birmingham CityBirmingham18133234161842
3Wrexham20125330131741
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield19113530181236
5Stockport CountyStockport2096532211133
6Reading199463028231
7Barnsley208662926330
8Bolton WanderersBolton189362829-130
9Lincoln CityLincoln207762625128
10Blackpool197572931-226
11Mansfield TownMansfield187472222025
12Stevenage187471517-225
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough197393735224
14Charlton AthleticCharlton196671819-124
15Exeter CityExeter197391721-424
16Wigan AthleticWigan196581716123
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham186571920-123
18Leyton Orient196491920-122
19Northampton TownNorthampton205692129-821
20Bristol Rovers1963101728-1121
21Crawley TownCrawley1954102032-1219
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge1945102031-1117
23Burton Albion1926111630-1412
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1932141939-2011
> League One Full Table


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