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League One
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League One | Gameweek 28
Jan 15, 2024 at 8pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Burton Albion

Derby
3 - 2
Burton Albion

Barkhuizen (29'), Collins (49'), Hourihane (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Seddon (54'), Hugill (65')
Oshilaja (64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League One clash between Derby County and Burton Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 0-1 Bradford
Tuesday, January 9 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Burton Albion

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Blackpool 2-1 Burton Albion
Wednesday, January 10 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

We said: Derby County 2-0 Burton Albion

 Derby cruised to a 3-0 win in the reverse fixture in August, and we think that they will claim another win against Burton to move into the League One promotion places. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 70.39%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 11.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.01%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.34%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (3.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawBurton Albion
70.39% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 17.65% (0.0030000000000001 0) 11.95% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Both teams to score 50.86% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.62% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)39.37% (0.010000000000005 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.28% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)61.71% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.99% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)10.01% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.95% (-0.0099999999999909 -0.01)33.05% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Burton Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.51% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)43.48% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.3% (-0.004999999999999 -0)79.7% (0.0050000000000097 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 70.38%
    Burton Albion 11.95%
    Draw 17.65%
Derby CountyDrawBurton Albion
2-0 @ 11.52%
1-0 @ 10.01%
2-1 @ 9.6% (0.0010000000000012 0)
3-0 @ 8.85% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 7.37% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-0 @ 5.09% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-1 @ 4.24% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-2 @ 3.07% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-0 @ 2.34% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-1 @ 1.95% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.77% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 4.58%
Total : 70.38%
1-1 @ 8.34% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-0 @ 4.35% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-2 @ 4%
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 17.65%
0-1 @ 3.63% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-2 @ 3.47% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 1.51%
2-3 @ 1.11%
1-3 @ 0.96%
Other @ 1.27%
Total : 11.95%

How you voted: Derby vs Burton Albion

Derby County
82.9%
Draw
8.6%
Burton Albion
8.6%
35
Head to Head
Aug 12, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 2
Burton Albion
0-3
Derby

Seddon (2'), Maamria (3')
Collins (6'), Hourihane (78'), Washington (84')
Mendez-Laing (45+2'), Hourihane (66'), Cashin (90+6')
> Preview
Apr 22, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 44
Derby
1-0
Burton Albion
McGoldrick (63' pen.)
Dec 10, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 21
Burton Albion
1-1
Derby
Adeboyejo (79')
Collins (23')
> Preview
Jul 20, 2019 3pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Burton Albion
2-5
Derby
Brayford (22'), Fraser (51')
Waghorn (16', 28', 37'), Bennett (47'), Bird (93')
Apr 14, 2018 3pm
Burton Albion
3-1
Derby
Boyce (24'), Murphy (44'), Akins (68')
Buxton (39'), Brayford (63'), Akpan (77')
Nugent (29')
Huddlestone (49')
rhs 2.0
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> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe14102232161632
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1393124121230
3Wrexham1584322111128
4Stockport CountyStockport167632617927
5Barnsley157532419526
6Lincoln CityLincoln157532117426
7Mansfield TownMansfield137332015524
8Huddersfield TownHuddersfield147252114723
9Exeter CityExeter147251410423
10Reading147252221123
11Bolton WanderersBolton147252224-223
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough156363127421
13Charlton AthleticCharlton145451515019
14Bristol Rovers155371621-518
15Stevenage155371116-518
16Northampton TownNorthampton154561821-317
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham154561418-417
18Blackpool154562128-717
19Wigan AthleticWigan143561212014
20Leyton Orient144281418-414
21Crawley TownCrawley163491427-1313
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge143291324-1111
23Burton Albion141581525-108
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1522111327-148
> League One Full Table


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