League One

League One | Gameweek 28

Jan 15, 2024 at 8pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
3 - 2
Burton Albion

Barkhuizen (29'), Collins (49'), Hourihane (90+3')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Seddon (54'), Hugill (65')
Oshilaja (64')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League One clash between Derby County and Burton Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Derby 0-1 Bradford
Tuesday, January 9 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Goals
for

Top scorers

Burton Albion

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Blackpool 2-1 Burton Albion
Wednesday, January 10 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Derby County 2-0 Burton Albion

Derby cruised to a 3-0 win in the reverse fixture in August, and we think that they will claim another win against Burton to move into the League One promotion places. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 70.39%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 11.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.01%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.34%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (3.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Burton Albion
70.39% ( -0.01)	17.65% ( 0)	11.95% ( 0)

Both teams to score 50.86% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.62% (

-0.01)

39.37% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.28% (

-0.01)

61.71% (

0.01)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.99% (

-0)

10.01% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.95% (

-0.01)

33.05% (

0.01)

Burton Albion Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.51% (

-0)

43.48% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.3% (

-0)

79.7% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Derby County 70.38%

Burton Albion 11.95%

Draw 17.65%

Derby County	Draw	Burton Albion
2-0 @ 11.52% 1-0 @ 10.01% 2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0) 3-0 @ 8.85% ( -0) 3-1 @ 7.37% ( -0) 4-0 @ 5.09% ( -0) 4-1 @ 4.24% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.07% ( -0) 5-0 @ 2.34% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.95% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.77% ( -0) Other @ 4.58% Total : 70.38%	1-1 @ 8.34% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.35% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4% Other @ 0.96% Total : 17.65%	0-1 @ 3.63% ( 0) 1-2 @ 3.47% ( 0) 0-2 @ 1.51% 2-3 @ 1.11% 1-3 @ 0.96% Other @ 1.27% Total : 11.95%