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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 66.57%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 14.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.18%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Burton Albion |
66.57% ( 0.6) | 19.37% ( -0.31) | 14.06% ( -0.28) |
Both teams to score 51.13% ( 0.32) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.79% ( 0.81) | 42.21% ( -0.8) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.39% ( 0.8) | 64.61% ( -0.8) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.21% ( 0.4) | 11.78% ( -0.4) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.01% ( 0.85) | 36.98% ( -0.85) |
Burton Albion Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.96% ( 0.1) | 42.04% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.53% ( 0.09) | 78.47% ( -0.08) |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Burton Albion |
2-0 @ 11.32% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 10.59% ( -0.21) 2-1 @ 9.82% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 8.07% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 7% ( 0.1) 4-0 @ 4.32% ( 0.12) 4-1 @ 3.74% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 3.03% ( 0.05) 5-0 @ 1.85% ( 0.08) 4-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 1.6% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.61% Total : 66.56% | 1-1 @ 9.18% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 4.95% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 4.25% ( 0) Other @ 0.99% Total : 19.37% | 0-1 @ 4.29% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 3.98% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 1.86% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.55% Total : 14.06% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
2 | Wrexham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 17 |
3 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
4 | Blackpool | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 14 |
5 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
6 | Barnsley | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 13 |
8 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
9 | Stockport CountyStockport | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 12 |
10 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 12 |
11 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 11 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
14 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
15 | Reading | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
16 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
17 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
18 | Leyton Orient | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
19 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
20 | Crawley TownCrawley | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
21 | Bristol Rovers | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
22 | Burton Albion | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
24 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 1 |
> League One Full Table |