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League One | Gameweek 26
Jan 1, 2024 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Peterborough United

Derby
2 - 3
Peterborough

Collins (1', 60')
Forsyth (41')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Burrows (9'), Poku (84'), Jade-Jones (90+4')
Kyprianou (30')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League One clash between Derby County and Peterborough United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Oxford Utd 2-3 Derby
Friday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League One

Peterborough United

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Peterborough 2-2 Barnsley
Friday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-1 Peterborough United

 With both teams sitting level on 46 points, we expect Monday's contest to be a close-fought affair, but we think that Derby may do just enough to claim the spoils after winning five of their last six home league games. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 44.37%. A win for Peterborough United had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.86%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Peterborough United win was 1-2 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.

Result
Derby CountyDrawPeterborough United
44.37% (-0.081000000000003 -0.08) 23.77% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01) 31.85% (0.091000000000001 0.09)
Both teams to score 60.89% (0.080999999999996 0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.96% (0.085000000000001 0.09)41.04% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.57% (0.087000000000003 0.09)63.43% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.22% (0.0010000000000048 0)18.77% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.82% (0.0020000000000024 0)50.17% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Peterborough United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.96% (0.097999999999999 0.1)25.03% (-0.096 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.29% (0.133 0.13)59.7% (-0.131 -0.13)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 44.37%
    Peterborough United 31.85%
    Draw 23.77%
Derby CountyDrawPeterborough United
2-1 @ 9.11% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-0 @ 7.86% (-0.03 -0.03)
2-0 @ 6.58% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
3-1 @ 5.08% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-0 @ 3.67% (-0.014 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.52% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.12% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-0 @ 1.53% (-0.006 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.47% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.44%
Total : 44.37%
1-1 @ 10.88% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.31% (0.011 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.7% (-0.018 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.62% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 23.77%
1-2 @ 7.54% (0.013 0.01)
0-1 @ 6.51% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.51% (0.008 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.48% (0.015 0.02)
2-3 @ 2.91% (0.013 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.08% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.21% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
2-4 @ 1.01% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 31.85%

How you voted: Derby vs Peterborough

Derby County
70.8%
Draw
16.7%
Peterborough United
12.5%
24
Head to Head
Aug 26, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 5
Peterborough
2-4
Derby
Clarke-Harris (23'), Poku (90')
Burrows (38'), Ferguson (39'), Kioso (67')
Ferguson (0')
Waghorn (29', 39', 45'), Cashin (37')
Forsyth (86')
Mar 25, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 38
Peterborough
2-0
Derby
Mason-Clark (52'), Ogbeta (83')
> Preview
Aug 27, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 6
Derby
2-1
Peterborough
Knight (88'), McGoldrick (90+2')
Stearman (64')
Knight (69')
Taylor (26'), Thompson (30'), Burrows (41')
Thompson (56')
Feb 19, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 33
Derby
1-0
Peterborough
Sibley (90+2')
Byrne (76'), Davies (80'), Sibley (90+3'), Allsop (90+4'), Morrison (90+7')
Lawrence (47')

Coulson (31'), Brown (59'), Jade-Jones (70'), Thompson (76'), Knight (87')
Coulson (35')
> Preview
Aug 14, 2021 12.30pm
Gameweek 2
Peterborough
2-1
Derby
Burrows (90+1'), Dembele (90+9')
Beevers (25'), Thompson (63'), Butler (83'), Dembele (90+9')
Stretton (77')
Sibley (90+1'), Forsyth (90+3')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham34247356223479
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe351911561332868
3Wrexham35208750282268
4Stockport CountyStockport361711852341862
5Charlton AthleticCharlton35179946311560
6Bolton WanderersBolton35186115751660
7Huddersfield TownHuddersfield361771247331458
8Reading351510104945455
9Leyton Orient361651551371453
10Barnsley36157145051-152
11Blackpool35111595247548
12Stevenage35139133335-248
13Lincoln CityLincoln361210144845346
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham35128153941-244
15Wigan AthleticWigan351110143234-243
16Mansfield TownMansfield35118164148-741
17Northampton TownNorthampton361011153653-1741
18Exeter CityExeter34117163750-1340
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough35109165260-839
20Bristol Rovers35116183653-1739
21Burton Albion36712173653-1733
22Crawley TownCrawley3579193865-2730
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge3578203458-2429
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury3677223460-2628
> League One Full Table


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