League One

League One | Gameweek 25

Dec 29, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

The Kassam Stadium

Oxford Utd
2 - 3
Derby

Brannagan (2' pen., 13')
Beadle (67')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Forsyth (45+3'), Thompson (81'), Cashin (86')
Wildsmith (2'), Bird (24'), Barkhuizen (59'), John-Jules (71')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's League One clash between Oxford United and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Oxford United

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Oxford Utd 2-1 Cambridge
Tuesday, December 26 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Wigan 0-1 Derby
Tuesday, December 26 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Oxford United 1-1 Derby County

Derby may have won each of their last three away league games, but we think that they will have to settle for a point against an Oxford side that are unbeaten in eight home matches (W5, D3). Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 37.19%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 35.75% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.1%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 1-0 (10.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Oxford United	Draw	Derby County
35.75% ( -0.03)	27.06% ( 0.01)	37.19% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 50.71% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.38% (

-0.03)

54.62% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.04% (

-0.02)

75.96% (

0.02)

Oxford United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.78% (

-0.03)

29.22% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.82% (

-0.04)

65.17% (

0.04)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.64% (

-0)

28.35% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.91% (

-0)

64.09% (

Score Analysis

Oxford United 35.75%

Derby County 37.18%

Draw 27.05%

Oxford United	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 10.19% 2-1 @ 7.9% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.27% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.24% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.57% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.04% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1% ( -0) Other @ 2.53% Total : 35.75%	1-1 @ 12.84% 0-0 @ 8.29% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.98% ( -0) Other @ 0.95% Total : 27.05%	0-1 @ 10.44% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.1% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.58% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.4% 0-3 @ 2.77% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.09% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.07% Other @ 2.73% Total : 37.18%