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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 49.17%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 26.89% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.39%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-2 (6.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Reading would win this match.
Result | ||
Reading | Draw | Exeter City |
49.17% ( 0.13) | 23.94% ( -0) | 26.89% ( -0.13) |
Both teams to score 57.02% ( -0.1) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.31% ( -0.09) | 44.69% ( 0.09) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.95% ( -0.09) | 67.05% ( 0.08) |
Reading Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.73% ( 0.02) | 18.27% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.67% ( 0.03) | 49.33% ( -0.03) |
Exeter City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.76% ( -0.15) | 30.23% ( 0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.6% ( -0.17) | 66.4% ( 0.17) |
Score Analysis |
Reading | Draw | Exeter City |
2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.39% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 7.98% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.41% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.52% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.24% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.3% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.38% ( -0) Other @ 3.49% Total : 49.17% | 1-1 @ 11.23% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.52% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.93% | 1-2 @ 6.72% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 6.61% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.68% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.28% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.08% Total : 26.89% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 43 | 22 | 21 | 44 |
2 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 16 | 18 | 42 |
3 | Wrexham | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 14 | 17 | 42 |
4 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 39 |
5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 36 |
6 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 31 |
7 | Reading | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 31 |
8 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 31 |
9 | Barnsley | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 30 |
10 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 28 |
11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 27 |
12 | Blackpool | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 27 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 27 |
14 | Stevenage | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 26 |
15 | Leyton Orient | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 25 |
16 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 24 |
17 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 24 |
18 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 23 |
19 | Bristol Rovers | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 22 |
20 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 21 |
21 | Crawley TownCrawley | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 19 |
22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 17 |
23 | Burton Albion | 20 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 20 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 12 |
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