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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 37.15%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 36.09% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.15%) and 0-2 (6.47%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 1-0 (9.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.
Result | ||
Stevenage | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
36.09% ( 0.06) | 26.75% ( -0.05) | 37.15% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 51.72% ( 0.17) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.64% ( 0.22) | 53.36% ( -0.22) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.1% ( 0.19) | 74.9% ( -0.19) |
Stevenage Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.6% ( 0.14) | 28.4% ( -0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.85% ( 0.18) | 64.15% ( -0.18) |
Bolton Wanderers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.23% ( 0.1) | 27.77% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.65% ( 0.13) | 63.35% ( -0.13) |
Score Analysis |
Stevenage | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
1-0 @ 9.93% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 8.01% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.25% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.36% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 2.62% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.15% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.72% Total : 36.09% | 1-1 @ 12.71% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.89% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.13% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.74% | 0-1 @ 10.1% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 8.15% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 6.47% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 3.48% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.77% 2-3 @ 2.19% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.88% Total : 37.15% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 43 | 22 | 21 | 44 |
2 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 16 | 18 | 42 |
3 | Wrexham | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 14 | 17 | 42 |
4 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 39 |
5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 36 |
6 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 31 |
7 | Reading | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 31 |
8 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 31 |
9 | Barnsley | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 30 |
10 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 28 |
11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 27 |
12 | Blackpool | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 27 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 27 |
14 | Stevenage | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 26 |
15 | Leyton Orient | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 25 |
16 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 24 |
17 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 24 |
18 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 23 |
19 | Bristol Rovers | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 22 |
20 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 21 |
21 | Crawley TownCrawley | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 19 |
22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 17 |
23 | Burton Albion | 20 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 20 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 12 |
> League One Full Table |