Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 39.68%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 33.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 0-1 (9.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.