League Two

League Two | Gameweek 22

Dec 20, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Sixfields

Northampton
2 - 1
Carlisle

Sherring (53'), Appere (56')
Fox (45'), Burge (83'), McGowan (88')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Armer (50')
Whelan (41'), Armer (82')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Northampton Town and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Northampton Town

All competitions

League Two

Last Game: Northampton 0-0 Tranmere
Saturday, December 3 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Carlisle United

All competitions

League Two

Last Game: Carlisle 1-1 Sutton
Saturday, December 3 at 1pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Northampton Town 2-1 Carlisle United

While both sides have proven difficult opponents to take points off in the league this season, Northampton Town's consistency of performance makes them one of the teams to beat in League Two. Carlisle have been strong performers away from home this season, however creation of meaningful opportunities has been a problem for Paul Simpson of late, and they may not have the attacking power to outscore their fellow promotion contenders. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 47.29%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 27.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Northampton Town in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Northampton Town.

Result
Northampton Town	Draw	Carlisle United
47.29% ( 0.19)	24.81% ( -0.09)	27.9% ( -0.1)

Both teams to score 54.92% (

0.21)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.18% (

0.31)

47.82% (

-0.32)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30% (

0.29)

70% (

-0.29)

Northampton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.72% (

0.2)

20.27% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.37% (

0.33)

52.63% (

-0.33)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.89% (

0.09)

31.11% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.57% (

0.11)

67.43% (

-0.11)

Score Analysis

Northampton Town 47.28%

Carlisle United 27.9%

Draw 24.81%

Northampton Town	Draw	Carlisle United
1-0 @ 10.06% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.38% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.03% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.99% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 4.27% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.91% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.99% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.7% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.16% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.79% Total : 47.28%	1-1 @ 11.75% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 6.31% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.48% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.81%	0-1 @ 7.36% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 6.86% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.3% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.67% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.13% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.9% Total : 27.9%