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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Salford City win with a probability of 45.2%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 31.9% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Salford City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.87%) and 2-0 (6.14%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-2 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Salford City would win this match.
Result | ||
Salford City | Draw | Morecambe |
45.2% ( 1.44) | 22.9% ( -0.07) | 31.9% ( -1.37) |
Both teams to score 64.15% ( -0.36) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.22% ( -0.23) | 36.77% ( 0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.06% ( -0.25) | 58.94% ( 0.25) |
Salford City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.25% ( 0.47) | 16.74% ( -0.47) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.33% ( 0.83) | 46.67% ( -0.84) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.05% ( -0.88) | 22.95% ( 0.87) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.27% ( -1.31) | 56.73% ( 1.3) |
Score Analysis |
Salford City | Draw | Morecambe |
2-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.15) 1-0 @ 6.87% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 6.14% ( 0.25) 3-1 @ 5.38% ( 0.17) 3-2 @ 3.96% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 3.66% ( 0.21) 4-1 @ 2.4% ( 0.11) 4-2 @ 1.77% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.63% ( 0.12) Other @ 4.37% Total : 45.2% | 1-1 @ 10.1% 2-2 @ 6.65% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.36% Total : 22.89% | 1-2 @ 7.44% ( -0.19) 0-1 @ 5.66% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 4.16% ( -0.17) 1-3 @ 3.65% ( -0.19) 2-3 @ 3.26% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 2.04% ( -0.14) 1-4 @ 1.34% ( -0.11) 2-4 @ 1.2% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.14% Total : 31.9% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
> League Two Full Table |