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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 47.26%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Sutton United had a probability of 25.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.32%) and 2-1 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.69%), while for a Sutton United win it was 0-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stevenage would win this match.
Result | ||
Stevenage | Draw | Sutton United |
47.26% ( -1.1) | 27.12% ( 0.51) | 25.61% ( 0.59) |
Both teams to score 46.25% ( -0.89) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.74% ( -1.4) | 58.26% ( 1.4) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.11% ( -1.11) | 78.89% ( 1.11) |
Stevenage Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.31% ( -1.13) | 24.69% ( 1.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.77% ( -1.61) | 59.23% ( 1.61) |
Sutton United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.41% ( -0.25) | 38.59% ( 0.25) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.67% ( -0.24) | 75.33% ( 0.24) |
Score Analysis |
Stevenage | Draw | Sutton United |
1-0 @ 13.32% ( 0.27) 2-0 @ 9.32% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 8.88% ( -0.17) 3-0 @ 4.35% ( -0.2) 3-1 @ 4.14% ( -0.22) 3-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.12) 4-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 1.45% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.33% Total : 47.26% | 1-1 @ 12.69% ( 0.18) 0-0 @ 9.53% ( 0.5) 2-2 @ 4.23% ( -0.11) Other @ 0.68% Total : 27.12% | 0-1 @ 9.07% ( 0.41) 1-2 @ 6.04% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 4.32% ( 0.17) 1-3 @ 1.92% 0-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.55% Total : 25.61% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Walsall | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 30 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 29 |
4 | Notts County | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 28 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
6 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Chesterfield | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 25 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 25 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 23 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Gillingham | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 23 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 21 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 21 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 17 |
20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 17 |
21 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 13 |
23 | Morecambe | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 13 |
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