Lorient1 - 4PSG
Form, Standings, Stats
Friday, April 19 at 8pm in Ligue 1
for
Sunday, April 21 at 8pm in Ligue 1
We said: Lorient 1-3 Paris Saint-Germain
Despite picking up four points from their last two Ligue 1 meetings with PSG — a 3-1 win in Paris in April 2023 and a goalless game in this season's reverse fixture — Enrique's team should end that two-match winless sequence against Les Merlus on Wednesday, taking another step towards a 12th top-flight crown. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 76.12%. A draw had a probability of 14.3% and a win for Lorient had a probability of 9.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.16%) and 1-2 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.51%), while for a Lorient win it was 2-1 (2.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lorient | Draw | Paris Saint-Germain |
9.53% ( -0.04) | 14.35% ( -0.01) | 76.12% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 54.75% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.89% ( -0.08) | 30.11% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.68% ( -0.1) | 51.32% ( 0.1) |
| Lorient Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.58% ( -0.15) | 41.42% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 22.07% ( -0.13) | 77.93% ( 0.13) |
| Paris Saint-Germain Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.46% ( -0) | 6.53% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 75.63% ( -0.02) | 24.37% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lorient | Draw | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2-1 @ 2.87% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 2.39% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 1.05% ( -0)Other @ 2.08% Total : 9.53% | 1-1 @ 6.51% ( 0) 2-2 @ 3.91% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.17% Total : 14.35% | 0-2 @ 10.07% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 9.16% ( 0.03)1-2 @ 8.88% ( -0)1-3 @ 8.07% ( -0.01)0-1 @ 7.39% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 6.25% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 5.51% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.56% ( -0.02)0-5 @ 3.41% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 3% ( -0)2-4 @ 2.43% ( -0.01)0-6 @ 1.55% ( 0)1-6 @ 1.37% ( -0)2-5 @ 1.32% ( -0.01)Other @ 4.17% Total : 76.12% |
