Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 44.32%. A win for Everton had a probability of 32.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.51%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Everton win was 1-2 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
Result | ||
Aston Villa | Draw | Everton |
44.32% ( -0.16) | 23.52% ( -0.02) | 32.16% ( 0.17) |
Both teams to score 61.96% ( 0.14) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.31% ( 0.16) | 39.69% ( -0.15) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.96% ( 0.16) | 62.04% ( -0.16) |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.75% ( -0) | 18.25% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.7% ( -0) | 49.29% ( 0) |
Everton Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.8% ( 0.17) | 24.2% ( -0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.46% ( 0.25) | 58.54% ( -0.25) |
Score Analysis |
Aston Villa | Draw | Everton |
2-1 @ 9.07% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.51% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 6.39% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.14% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.65% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.62% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.19% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.55% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.54% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.66% Total : 44.32% | 1-1 @ 10.65% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.43% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.42% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.51% | 1-2 @ 7.56% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 6.27% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.45% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.58% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 3.04% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.27% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.08% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.82% Total : 32.16% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Liverpool | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 36 |
2 | Chelsea | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 34 |
3 | Arsenal | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 30 |
4 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 28 |
5 | Manchester CityMan City | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 27 |
6 | Bournemouth | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 3 | 25 |
7 | Aston Villa | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 25 |
8 | Fulham | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 24 |
9 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 24 |
10 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 19 | 17 | 23 |
11 | Brentford | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 23 |
12 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 23 |
13 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 22 |
14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 19 |
15 | Crystal Palace | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 16 |
16 | Everton | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 15 |
17 | Leicester CityLeicester | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 14 |
18 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
19 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 9 |
20 | Southampton | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 36 | -25 | 5 |
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