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Sporting Lisbon
Taca de Portugal | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Feb 29, 2024 at 8.45pm UK
Estadio Jose Alvalade
Benfica

Sporting Lisbon
2 - 1
Benfica

Goncalves (9'), Gyokeres (54')
Hjulmand (33'), Paulinho (41')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Aursnes (68')
Schmidt (0'), Otamendi (31'), di Maria (74'), Kokcu (75'), Silva (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Taca de Portugal clash between Sporting Lisbon and Benfica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions
Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Rio Ave 3-3 Sporting Lisbon
Sunday, February 25 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Benfica

All competitions
Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Benfica 4-0 Portimonense
Sunday, February 25 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Sporting Lisbon 1-1 Benfica

 The spoils could be shared in this latest instalment of the Lisbon derby, leaving it all to play for when the reverse fixture comes around in April. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 50.46%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 26.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.19%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Benfica win was 1-2 (6.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match.

Result
Sporting LisbonDrawBenfica
50.46% (-0.089999999999996 -0.09) 23.51% (0.029 0.03) 26.03% (0.062999999999999 0.06)
Both teams to score 57.66% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.52% (-0.074000000000005 -0.07)43.48% (0.077999999999996 0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.12% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)65.88% (0.076999999999998 0.08)
Sporting Lisbon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.68% (-0.060999999999993 -0.06)17.32% (0.064 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.31% (-0.108 -0.11)47.69% (0.111 0.11)
Benfica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.74% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)30.27% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.56% (0.009999999999998 0.01)66.44% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Sporting Lisbon 50.46%
    Benfica 26.03%
    Draw 23.51%
Sporting LisbonDrawBenfica
2-1 @ 9.63% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
1-0 @ 9.19% (0.011999999999999 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.06% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-1 @ 5.63% (-0.015 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.71% (-0.013000000000001 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.36% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.47% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.06% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.47% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 3.88%
Total : 50.46%
1-1 @ 10.98% (0.02 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.76% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-0 @ 5.24% (0.018 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.34% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 23.51%
1-2 @ 6.56% (0.011 0.01)
0-1 @ 6.27% (0.023 0.02)
0-2 @ 3.74% (0.014 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.62% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.29%
0-3 @ 1.49% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 3.05%
Total : 26.03%

How you voted: Sporting Lisbon vs Benfica

Sporting Lisbon
49.7%
Draw
27.6%
Benfica
22.8%
145
Head to Head
Nov 12, 2023 8.30pm
Gameweek 11
Benfica
2-1
Sporting Lisbon
Neves (90+4'), Tengstedt (90+7')
Mario (66'), Neves (75')
Gyokeres (45')
Coates (15'), Inacio (22'), Edwards (57'), Hjulmand (69'), Neto (90+11')
Inacio (51')
> Preview
May 21, 2023 8.30pm
Gameweek 33
Sporting Lisbon
2-2
Benfica
Trincao (39'), Diomande (44')
Diomande (48'), Coates (88')
Aursnes (71'), Neves (90+4')
Silva (40'), Chiquinho (80')
> Preview
Jan 15, 2023 6pm
Gameweek 16
Benfica
2-2
Sporting Lisbon
Ramos (37', 64')
Bah (27'), Goncalves (53' pen.)
> Preview
Apr 17, 2022 8.30pm
Gameweek 30
Sporting Lisbon
0-2
Benfica

Sarabia (13'), Paulinho (51')
Nunez (14'), Dias (90+2')
Everton (41'), Vertonghen (51'), Taarabt (75')
> Preview
Jan 29, 2022 7.45pm
Final
Benfica
1-2
Sporting Lisbon
Everton (23')
Vertonghen (53'), Everton (58'), Mario (90+2')
Inacio (49'), Sarabia (78')
Neto (31'), Paulinho (53'), Nunes (59'), Esgaio (77')
> Preview
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