Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 74.51%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 9.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.65%) and 0-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.38%), while for a Portimonense win it was 1-0 (2.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Portimonense | Draw | Benfica |
9.81% ( -0.7) | 15.67% ( -0.35) | 74.51% ( 1.04) |
Both teams to score 50.32% ( -1.5) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.9% ( -0.52) | 36.1% ( 0.52) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.79% ( -0.57) | 58.2% ( 0.57) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
54.84% ( -1.7) | 45.16% ( 1.7) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
18.94% ( -1.38) | 81.06% ( 1.38) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.76% ( 0.1) | 8.23% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
71.21% ( 0.25) | 28.78% ( -0.26) |
Score Analysis |
Portimonense | Draw | Benfica |
1-0 @ 2.96% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 2.93% ( -0.19) 2-0 @ 1.18% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.11) Other @ 1.78% Total : 9.81% | 1-1 @ 7.38% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 3.72% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.22) Other @ 0.92% Total : 15.67% | 0-2 @ 11.59% ( 0.41) 0-3 @ 9.65% ( 0.39) 0-1 @ 9.28% ( 0.28) 1-2 @ 9.21% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 7.67% ( -0.05) 0-4 @ 6.02% ( 0.27) 1-4 @ 4.79% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.05% ( -0.17) 0-5 @ 3.01% ( 0.15) 1-5 @ 2.39% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.9% ( -0.09) 0-6 @ 1.25% ( 0.07) 1-6 @ 1% ( 0.01) 2-5 @ 0.95% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.74% Total : 74.51% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
2 | Porto | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 9 | 24 | 34 |
3 | Benfica | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 8 | 24 | 32 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 27 |
5 | Braga | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 20 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 19 |
9 | Casa Pia | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | Nacional | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 12 |
14 | AVS | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 12 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | BoavistaBoavista | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 |
17 | AroucaArouca | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 11 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 9 |
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