Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 70.21%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 11.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.48%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.69%), while for a Famalicao win it was 0-1 (3.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Famalicao |
70.21% ( -0.11) | 18.28% ( 0.06) | 11.51% ( 0.06) |
Both teams to score 47.15% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.52% ( -0.11) | 43.48% ( 0.11) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.12% ( -0.11) | 65.87% ( 0.11) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.83% ( -0.06) | 11.17% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
64.34% ( -0.13) | 35.66% ( 0.13) |
Famalicao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
53.08% ( 0.03) | 46.91% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.58% ( 0.02) | 82.42% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Famalicao |
2-0 @ 12.58% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 11.48% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.53% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 9.2% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 6.96% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 5.04% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 3.81% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.63% ( -0) 5-0 @ 2.21% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.67% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.44% ( -0) Other @ 3.64% Total : 70.2% | 1-1 @ 8.69% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 5.24% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 3.61% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.74% Total : 18.28% | 0-1 @ 3.97% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 1.84% Total : 11.51% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 3 | 32 | 30 |
2 | Porto | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 23 | 27 |
3 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 6 | 18 | 22 |
4 | Braga | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 20 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 18 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 18 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 16 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 14 |
9 | Casa Pia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 12 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
11 | BoavistaBoavista | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 9 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 9 |
13 | AVS | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
14 | Rio AveRio Ave | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
15 | AroucaArouca | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 7 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 6 |
17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 5 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 4 |
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