Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 59.54%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 17.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.35%) and 1-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.85%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-0 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Benfica in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Benfica.
Result | ||
Casa Pia | Draw | Benfica |
17.6% ( -0.35) | 22.86% ( -0.31) | 59.54% ( 0.66) |
Both teams to score 48.01% ( 0.26) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.45% ( 0.69) | 50.55% ( -0.69) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.53% ( 0.61) | 72.47% ( -0.61) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.58% ( -0.02) | 42.42% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.2% ( -0.02) | 78.8% ( 0.02) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.37% ( 0.47) | 16.62% ( -0.48) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.54% ( 0.84) | 46.45% ( -0.85) |
Score Analysis |
Casa Pia | Draw | Benfica |
1-0 @ 6.05% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 4.65% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 2.59% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 1.33% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.19% ( 0) Other @ 1.78% Total : 17.6% | 1-1 @ 10.85% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 7.05% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 4.17% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.79% Total : 22.86% | 0-1 @ 12.65% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 11.35% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 9.74% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 6.79% ( 0.13) 1-3 @ 5.82% ( 0.11) 0-4 @ 3.05% ( 0.11) 1-4 @ 2.61% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.05) 2-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.04) 0-5 @ 1.09% ( 0.05) 1-5 @ 0.94% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.88% Total : 59.53% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
2 | Porto | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 9 | 24 | 34 |
3 | Benfica | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 8 | 24 | 32 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 27 |
5 | Braga | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 20 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 19 |
9 | Casa Pia | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | Nacional | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 12 |
14 | AVS | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 12 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | BoavistaBoavista | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 |
17 | AroucaArouca | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 11 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 9 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |