Fourth-tier side Rumilly Vallieres will be eyeing a giant killing in the Coupe de France when they welcome Ligue 2 promotion hopefuls Toulouse to the Stade des Grangettes in Tuesday's quarter-final.
The hosts advanced to the final eight courtesy of a 4-0 thrashing of Le Puy Foot, while Toulouse overcame Olympique Saumur in the last 16.
Match preview
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With the remainder of the 2020-21 Championnat National 2 season still shrouded in uncertainty, Rumilly Vallieres have been able to focus all their attention on the Coupe de France, and it has certainly paid off for the minnows.
A very brief resumption of the fourth tier allowed Fatsah Amghar's side to take on Marseille II on February 27 - a tie that finished goalless - and the 45-year-old would have welcomed a break from league action after his side failed to win in four before the division was shut down again.
Rumilly Vallieres have had to rely on three penalty-shootout victories to carry them into the next rounds of the Coupe de France, but they simply breezed past fellow fourth-tier side Le Puy Foot in the last 16, as Armel Liongo, Jocelyn Gay, Arthur Bozon and Alexi Peuget netted in a convincing 4-0 triumph.
Appearing in the quarter-finals for the first time ever, Amghar's side did not get the mammoth draw against Lyon, Monaco or Paris Saint-Germain that they were pining for, and the visit of Toulouse represents the first true test for Rumilly Vallieres as they seek to defy the odds once more.
Toulouse's ultimate goal for the season is an immediate return to Ligue 1, but the second-division outfit also have a magnificent chance to reach the final four of the Coupe de France and will not want to pass that up.
Patrice Garande's side have been knocked off their perch in Ligue 2 by Troyes following a spate of inconsistent results, but they at least managed to prevail at the weekend by a 1-0 scoreline over Chateauroux, with goalscoring defender Kelvin Amian netting his fourth of the season in that triumph.
Toulouse have not had the most challenging of routes to the quarter-finals, although they did have to knock Bordeaux out along the way, while 18-year-old Samuel Kasongo netted the decisive goal in a 2-1 win over Olympique Saumur in the last-16.
Garande did not field a single player over the age of 25 in that game, however, and the visiting manager is sure to switch it up here amid their promotion push in Ligue 2, but his side have prevailed in just two of their last six away matches across all competitions.
The visitors have not reached the semi-finals of France's premier cup competition since the 2008-09 campaign, and a clash with one of the big boys awaits should they get there, but Garande will have to get used to fixtures against the nation's most celebrated names if their promotion push ends up proving successful.
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Team News
Rumilly Vallieres manager Amghar is expected to line his side up in the overwhelmingly successful 4-4-2 formation from their last-16 win, with Liongo most likely leading the line alongside Nikola Volic after Ashley Moke Njedi lasted just 22 minutes in that game.
Left-back Vincent Di Stefano returns after serving a suspension last time out, and the 28-year-old could therefore demote Dorian Michaud - a right-back by trade - to the bench.
Very few alterations can be expected on the hosts' end, although Peuget will be eyeing a starting role after coming off the bench to net his side's third from the penalty spot against Le Puy Foot.
Toulouse attacker Stephane Zobo had to be withdrawn after just 13 minutes against Saumur, and with the 20-year-old failing to make the cut at the weekend, a comeback here seems unlikely.
The visitors have also revealed that four unnamed players tested positive for coronavirus on Sunday, while Wesley Said is finally back in training after a cruciate ligament rupture and could make the bench.
Garande may opt for a more youthful approach in this game as he prioritises a top-two finish in Ligue 2, and one of the most experienced players in their last-16 win - 25-year-old Stijn Spierings - will hope to return after breaking the deadlock in that game.
Borussia Monchengladbach won the race to sign 19-year-old midfield starlet Kouadio Kone, but he played the full 90 on Saturday and may be given the night off here.
Rumilly Vallieres possible starting lineup:
Delaunay; Boinali, Ribeiro, Leveque, Di Stefano; Cottin, Bozon, Peuget, Gay; Liongo, Volic
Toulouse possible starting lineup:
Bloch; Moreira, Diakite, Amian, Machado; Sanna, Spierings, Van den Boomen, Bangre; Antiste, Koulouris
We say: Rumilly Vallieres 0-2 Toulouse
It would not be a surprise to see Rumilly Vallieres play for a draw given their prowess from 12 yards, and Toulouse are expected to rotate their resources as the fight to earn automatic promotion to Ligue 1 hots up. Another giant killing in the Coupe de France is certainly possible at the Stade des Grangettes, but the hosts' lack of regular game time may hinder their chances of a historic semi-final appearance, so we can only back Toulouse to march on to the final four.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 73.3%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Rumilly Vallieres had a probability of 9.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (13.12%) and 0-3 (10.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.22%), while for a Rumilly Vallieres win it was 1-0 (3.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
