Two teams searching for their first Copa Sudamericana title will face each other in the quarter-finals on Thursday when the first leg between Santos and Club Libertad takes place at Estadio Urbano Caldeira in Brazil.
Peixe upset the former two-time champions Independiente on a 2-1 aggregate score in the previous round, while the 21-time Paraguayan champions defeated Atletico Junior to reach the last eight.
Match preview
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After a difficult group stage campaign at the Copa Libertadores, where they lost four of their six matches, Fernando Diniz and his side were given a second chance at international glory with Santos narrowly finishing third in their group on goal difference.
Advancing to the knockout stage of this competition for the first time since 2006, they were able to shut down an experienced Independiente side, who were not only quarter-finalists at this tournament in each of their previous two campaigns, but are also currently leading the second phase of the Argentine Primera Division.
The more possession they had in the Libertadores group stage, the less successful Santos seemed to be, as they lost three of their games despite having 60% or more of the ball, conceding seven goals while scoring only two over that stretch.
In their previous domestic campaign and early on in this one, there has been a common theme with this club, that they score about as many goals as they concede, scoring 52 times and conceding 51 in their 2020 campaign, while they have scored and allowed 16 goals in their opening 15 domestic league games so far this year.
After surviving a wave of Argentine pressure in the second leg of their tie with Independiente, this side have been a lot sharper defensively, allowing only one goal in their last five matches in all competitions and posting four consecutive clean sheets.
That statistic may be a little misleading, as two of those shutouts came against a fourth-tier Brazilian side in Juazeirense, while the other two were against teams in the bottom half of the table in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A.
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An offensive outburst for Libertad is the reason why they are still standing in this competition, as they exploded for four goals on the road in the first leg of their tie with Atletico Junior in the last round.
While most Paraguayan league matches are low-scoring, Daniel Garnero and his side have shown an ability to attack and score goals in bunches once in a while.
Their previous appearance at this competition came in 2017 when they made it to the semi-finals, and they would love nothing more than to get back there once again.
They won the 2021 Apertura Division Professional in Paraguay earlier this year, scoring the most goals in the league (36) and conceding the second-fewest (15).
In those 18 games, they scored multiple goals in 10 of those encounters, but they have not been able to maintain that form in the Classura, failing to score more than once in a single game after four matches played.
No side from Paraguay has ever won this competition, although Libertad are used to making deep runs at the Copa Sudamericana, qualifying for the last eight in 2013 and making the semi-finals for the first time back in 2011.
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Team News
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Kaio Jorge scored in each of the two Round of 16 matches for Santos, helping them reach this point of the competition, but he is now with Juventus in Italy, while goalkeeper Joao Paulo stopped 11 of the 12 shots that he faced in both legs of their tie with the Argentines and has not conceded a goal in his last four starts in all competitions.
Peixes have only conceded twice in their last six matches in which Madson, Luiz Felipe, Kaiky Fernandes and Felipe Jonatan have started as the back four.
Midfielder Sandry is out with a ruptured knee ligament, Kevin Malthus has a cruciate ligament injury and goalkeeper John has a meniscal injury.
Libertad striker Oscar Cardozo was second in league scoring in the Apertura with nine goals, but he has yet to find the back of the net in this competition, only featuring in two games up to this point.
Winger Antonio Bareiro is out with a cruciate ligament rupture and veteran keeper Martin Silva has played in every minute of this competition for Gumarelo, collecting three clean sheets.
Garnero made two changes from the first leg of their match up with the Colombians to the second, as Ayrton Cougo replaced Matias Espinoza on defence, with the 23-year-old moving into midfield to replace Bautista Merlini.
Santos possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Madson, Felipe, Kaiky Fernandes, Jonatan; Mota, Pirani, Sanchez; Guilherme, M. Leonardo, Braga
Club Libertad possible starting lineup:
Silva; Mayada, Viera, Barboza, Espinoza; Franco, H. Martinez, Diaz, Villalba; O. Cardozo, Enciso
We say: Santos 0-0 Club Libertad
Santos rarely concede at home, collecting eight clean sheets in their last 11 fixtures at Vila Belmiro in all competitions, but they have also failed to score in three of those fixtures, and except for their Round of 16 tie versus Independiente, this team have not faced a top-class team in quite some time.
Even though they scored a lot more goals than usual in the Apertura this year, Libertad have always had a defensive approach, and they have only won nine of their 32 previous matches against teams from Brazil.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 49.23%. A win for Club Libertad had a probability of 27.47% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.45%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Club Libertad win was 1-2 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Santos in this match.
