Scottish Championship | Gameweek 28

Mar 21, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Dens Park

Dundee
3 - 1
Ayr

Sweeney (13'), Jakubiak (59'), McCowan (80')
Sweeney (71')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Akinyemi (17')
Murdoch (75')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Scottish Championship clash between Dundee and Ayr United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Dundee

All competitions

Last Game: Partick 0-0 Dundee
Saturday, March 18 at 3pm in Scottish Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Ayr United

All competitions

Scottish Championship

Last Game: Hamilton 0-2 Ayr
Saturday, March 18 at 3pm in Scottish Championship

Goals
for

We said: Dundee 1-0 Ayr United

With Queen's Park putting a considerable gap between themselves and these two chasing sides, Tuesday's clash is likely to be a cagey affair given the amount at stake. Promotion arguably means more to Ayr given their 45-year exile from the top flight, but Dundee could have a little too much quality for their opponents. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dundee win with a probability of 49.93%. A win for Ayr United had a probability of 26.18% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Dundee win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.58%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Ayr United win was 1-2 (6.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Dundee would win this match.

Result
Dundee	Draw	Ayr United
49.93% ( -3.03)	23.89% ( 0.8)	26.18% ( 2.23)

Both teams to score 56.54% (

-0.35)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.97% (

-1.55)

45.03% (

1.55)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.62% (

-1.51)

67.38% (

1.5)

Dundee Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.89% (

-1.7)

18.1% (

1.69)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.95% (

-2.98)

49.05% (

2.98)

Ayr United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.04% (

0.98)

30.96% (

-0.98)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.74% (

1.13)

67.26% (

-1.14)

Score Analysis

Dundee 49.93%

Ayr United 26.18%

Draw 23.89%

Dundee	Draw	Ayr United
2-1 @ 9.6% ( -0.17) 1-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 8.19% ( -0.38) 3-1 @ 5.47% ( -0.42) 3-0 @ 4.66% ( -0.49) 3-2 @ 3.21% ( -0.15) 4-1 @ 2.34% ( -0.32) 4-0 @ 1.99% ( -0.34) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.15) Other @ 3.54% Total : 49.93%	1-1 @ 11.23% ( 0.42) 2-2 @ 5.63% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.61% ( 0.36) 3-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.89%	1-2 @ 6.59% ( 0.42) 0-1 @ 6.57% ( 0.59) 0-2 @ 3.85% ( 0.44) 1-3 @ 2.57% ( 0.23) 2-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.21) Other @ 2.89% Total : 26.18%