Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Queen of the South win with a probability of 45.04%. A win for Arbroath had a probability of 30.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Queen of the South win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Arbroath win was 1-2 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Queen of the South in this match.