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Serie A | Gameweek 31
Apr 23, 2023 at 5pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Lecce logo

AC Milan
2 - 0
Lecce

Leao (40', 74')
Thiaw (27'), Pioli (28')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Lecce, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Napoli 1-1 AC Milan
Tuesday, April 18 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Lecce 1-1 Sampdoria
Sunday, April 16 at 11.30am in Serie A

We said: AC Milan 1-0 Lecce

With four league games to play before tackling Inter in the first leg of their Champions League semi, Milan must focus on salvaging a top-four finish amid stiff competition. Goals have not always flowed freely in recent weeks, but the Rossoneri should have enough left in the tank to see off an ailing Lecce side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 61.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 15.17%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.89%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.73%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (6.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawLecce
61.66% (-0.064999999999998 -0.06) 23.17% (0.029 0.03) 15.17% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Both teams to score 42.38% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.54% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)55.46% (0.046000000000006 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.35% (-0.038 -0.04)76.65% (0.037999999999997 0.04)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.37% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)17.63% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.77% (-0.069000000000003 -0.07)48.23% (0.067 0.07)
Lecce Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
51.45% (0.023000000000003 0.02)48.55% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
16.37% (0.015999999999998 0.02)83.63% (-0.01700000000001 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 61.66%
    Lecce 15.17%
    Draw 23.16%
AC MilanDrawLecce
1-0 @ 14.85% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 12.89% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.32% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-0 @ 7.46% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
3-1 @ 5.39% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-0 @ 3.24% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.34% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.95% (-0.002 -0)
5-0 @ 1.12% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.12%
Total : 61.66%
1-1 @ 10.73% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 8.56% (0.014999999999999 0.01)
2-2 @ 3.37% (0.0020000000000002 0)
Other @ 0.51%
Total : 23.16%
0-1 @ 6.19% (0.015 0.01)
1-2 @ 3.88% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
0-2 @ 2.24% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
1-3 @ 0.93% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.93%
Total : 15.17%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Lecce

AC Milan
87.7%
Draw
10.5%
Lecce
1.8%
57
Head to Head
Jan 14, 2023 5pm
gameweek 18
Lecce
2-2
AC Milan
Hernandez (3' og.), Baschirotto (23')
Maleh (64')
Leao (58'), Calabria (70')
Calabria (66'), Bennacer (85')
Jun 22, 2020 6.30pm
Oct 20, 2019 7.45pm
gameweek 8
AC Milan
2-2
Lecce
Calhanoglu (20'), Piatek (81')
Biglia (85')
Babacar (62'), Calderoni (92')
Majer (44'), Rossettini (76')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1AC Milan6321147711
2Torino532085311
3Inter Milan6321137611
4Napoli531194510
5Udinese6312910-110
6Juventus52306069
7Empoli52305239
8Lazio52129817
9Atalanta BCAtalanta52031011-16
10Roma51315326
11Hellas VeronaHellas Verona52038806
12Bologna513168-26
13Fiorentina51317706
14Parma512289-15
15Lecce6123311-85
16Como512269-35
17Genoa512247-35
18VeneziaVenezia511338-54
19Monza503246-23
20CagliariCagliari502318-72


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