Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 61.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 15.17%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.89%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.73%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (6.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
Result | ||
AC Milan | Draw | Lecce |
61.66% ( -0.06) | 23.17% ( 0.03) | 15.17% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 42.38% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.54% ( -0.05) | 55.46% ( 0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.35% ( -0.04) | 76.65% ( 0.04) |
AC Milan Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.37% ( -0.04) | 17.63% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.77% ( -0.07) | 48.23% ( 0.07) |
Lecce Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
51.45% ( 0.02) | 48.55% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.37% ( 0.02) | 83.63% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
AC Milan | Draw | Lecce |
1-0 @ 14.85% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 12.89% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.32% ( -0) 3-0 @ 7.46% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.39% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3.24% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.34% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.95% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.12% ( -0) Other @ 3.12% Total : 61.66% | 1-1 @ 10.73% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.56% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.37% ( 0) Other @ 0.51% Total : 23.16% | 0-1 @ 6.19% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 3.88% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.24% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 1.93% Total : 15.17% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 16 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 17 | 22 | 37 |
2 | Napoli | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 35 |
3 | Inter Milan | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 40 | 15 | 25 | 34 |
4 | Fiorentina | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 11 | 17 | 31 |
5 | Lazio | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 31 |
6 | Juventus | 16 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 28 |
7 | Bologna | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 25 |
8 | AC Milan | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 23 |
9 | Udinese | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 20 |
10 | Empoli | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 19 |
11 | Torino | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 19 |
12 | Roma | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 16 |
13 | Genoa | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 16 |
14 | Lecce | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 27 | -17 | 16 |
15 | Parma | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 15 |
16 | Como | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 15 |
17 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 16 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 39 | -18 | 15 |
18 | CagliariCagliari | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 14 |
19 | Monza | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 10 |
20 | VeneziaVenezia | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 10 |
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