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Serie A | Gameweek 10
Oct 29, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Milan logo

Napoli
2 - 2
AC Milan

Politano (50'), Raspadori (63')
Natan (53'), Di Lorenzo (65'), Zanoli (86')
Natan (89')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Giroud (22', 31')
Reijnders (55'), Romero (62'), Musah (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Napoli and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Union Berlin 0-1 Napoli
Tuesday, October 24 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: PSG 3-0 AC Milan
Wednesday, October 25 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Napoli 1-1 AC Milan

Napoli have failed to beat Milan on home turf for some time now, and that run could be extended this week, as they are still not firing on all cylinders and will be missing their main marksman. Olivier Giroud's goal drought is a concern for the Rossoneri, but he tends to produce in the biggest matches, while Rafael Leao bagged a brace on his last league visit to the Maradona. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 52.01%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 25.01% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.92%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (6.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
NapoliDrawAC Milan
52.01% (0.051000000000002 0.05) 22.98% (-0.088000000000001 -0.09) 25.01% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Both teams to score 58.44% (0.33000000000001 0.33)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.02% (0.424 0.42)41.98% (-0.426 -0.43)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.62% (0.425 0.42)64.38% (-0.42699999999999 -0.43)
Napoli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.8% (0.17 0.17)16.2% (-0.172 -0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.31% (0.313 0.31)45.69% (-0.315 -0.31)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.73% (0.252 0.25)30.26% (-0.254 -0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.56% (0.3 0.3)66.44% (-0.30200000000001 -0.3)
Score Analysis
    Napoli 52.01%
    AC Milan 25.01%
    Draw 22.98%
NapoliDrawAC Milan
2-1 @ 9.71% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
1-0 @ 8.92% (-0.118 -0.12)
2-0 @ 8.12% (-0.058999999999999 -0.06)
3-1 @ 5.89% (0.033 0.03)
3-0 @ 4.93% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.52% (0.044 0.04)
4-1 @ 2.68% (0.031 0.03)
4-0 @ 2.24% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.6% (0.029 0.03)
5-1 @ 0.98% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 3.43%
Total : 52.01%
1-1 @ 10.66% (-0.07 -0.07)
2-2 @ 5.8% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 4.9% (-0.094 -0.09)
3-3 @ 1.4% (0.027 0.03)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 22.98%
1-2 @ 6.37% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-1 @ 5.86% (-0.071 -0.07)
0-2 @ 3.5% (-0.018 -0.02)
1-3 @ 2.54% (0.02 0.02)
2-3 @ 2.31% (0.031 0.03)
0-3 @ 1.4% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.02%
Total : 25.01%

How you voted: Napoli vs AC Milan

Napoli
43.2%
Draw
20.5%
AC Milan
36.4%
132
Head to Head
Apr 18, 2023 8pm
Quarter-Finals 2nd Leg
Napoli
1-1
AC Milan
Osimhen (90+3')
Giroud (43')
Apr 12, 2023 8pm
Quarter-Finals 1st Leg
AC Milan
1-0
Napoli
Bennacer (40')
Apr 2, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 28
Napoli
0-4
AC Milan
Leao (17', 59'), Diaz (25'), Saelemaekers (67')
Sep 18, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 7
AC Milan
1-2
Napoli
Giroud (69')
Politano (55' pen.), Simeone (78')
Mar 6, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 28
Napoli
0-1
AC Milan

Koulibaly (24'), Rrahmani (37'), Osimhen (77'), Ounas (90+2')
Giroud (49')
Pioli (8'), Giroud (39'), Hernandez (77'), Maignan (83'), Florenzi (90+3')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
1.15am
Buccaneers
@
Chiefs
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli118121881025
2Inter Milan1173125131224
3Atalanta BCAtalanta1171329141522
4Fiorentina116412291322
5Lazio1171324141022
6Juventus115601971221
7AC Milan105231711617
8Udinese115151416-216
9Bologna103611211115
10Torino114251516-114
11Empoli1135389-114
12Roma113441214-213
13Hellas VeronaHellas Verona114071624-812
14CagliariCagliari11236919-109
15Genoa11236821-139
16Como112361222-109
17Parma111641417-39
18Monza111551014-48
19VeneziaVenezia112271019-98
20Lecce11227420-168


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