Having given the impression they are running on fumes - relying on yet another late goal as recently as Thursday night, and only scoring once in each of their last five games - Roma's momentum could be halted this weekend.
If Immobile - fuelled by his battle with Dusan Vlahovic to be crowned Serie A's top scorer - can deliver the goods when it most matters, then Lazio can take advantage; pulling clear of their Olimpico co-tenants in the table.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 48.55%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 26.08% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (8.78%). The likeliest Lazio win was 0-1 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
