In a battle between two sides with a similar outcome in their most recent outings, Arouca play host to Porto this weekend for matchweek 24 of the Primeira Liga.
Both teams arrive at this clash following stalemates in their respective round 23 encounters, a result they have encountered most frequently in recent weeks.
Match preview
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A 2-2 draw on home turf against SC Farense marked the latest chapter in Arouca's recurring tale of stalemates, having shared the spoils in their previous two matches as well.
The result against the relegation-threatened side will feel like another painful setback for the Wolves, particularly as it extended a frustrating trend of dropping points late on, making it three consecutive games where they have surrendered a winning position.
Relinquishing their lead in the 96th minute at home against Rio Ave was a bitter pill to swallow; another lapse in the 74th minute away to league leaders Sporting Lisbon could be excused, but after clawing back from a one-goal deficit against a Farense side that had lost four straight games, the Wolves surrendering their advantage one minute from regulation time will feel like the biggest blow of the lot.
That result further underlined Arouca's struggles at the Estadio Municipal, where they have managed just 13 points from a possible 33, ranking them as the third-worst home side in the division.
Nonetheless, Gonzalo Garcia can draw encouragement from the fact that his team's unbeaten run has now stretched to eight matches, keeping them 12th in the standings with 25 points, five clear of the relegation playoff spot.
Despite their home struggles, Arouca can take heart from their most recent success against Saturday's visitors at this ground, where they secured a thrilling 3-2 victory in last season's Primeira Liga return leg.
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While Porto stumbled on their last trip in this fixture, their overall dominance away to Arouca remains unquestionable, having won the previous six such encounters before that setback, and they will be eager to reassert their authority.
Looking at more recent form, the Dragons are also seeking a return to winning ways after failing to build on their triumph over Farense, as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Vitoria de Guimaraes last time out.
Martin Anselmi's side had taken the lead in the 66th minute through Fabio Vieira, only to let it slip four minutes from time when Umaro Embalo struck a late equaliser.
Like their hosts, Porto's latest result was merely another in a string of draws that have punctuated their recent Primeira Liga campaign, marking their fifth such outcome in the last six matches, with only one victory in that stretch, leaving the Blue and Whites third in the standings with 47 points, ahead of fourth-placed Braga only on goal difference.
With the top two teams holding a six-point cushion, Porto know that securing maximum points this weekend is imperative to avoid further drift and keep their title hopes alive, as they also chase a sixth league double in this fixture, having thrashed Arouca 4-0 in the reverse matchup last September.
Team News
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Goalkeeper Nico Mantl is set to return between the sticks after serving a suspension, with Joao Valido, who stepped in for him last time out, likely to drop back to the bench.
Right-back Tiago Esgaio is doubtful for Saturday after missing the clash against Farense, meaning Alex Pinto is expected to retain his place for a second successive match, while Nino Galovic remains sidelined with a lengthy injury layoff.
Porto could be forced into changes up front, as Pepe was forced off in the 28th minute against Vitoria, paving the way for Samu Aghehowa, who replaced him in that match, to feature from the outset this time.
The former's absence adds to the club's injury woes, with Martim Fernandes ruled out with a muscle problem and Marko Grujic still recovering from the heel issue that has kept him out since late last year.
On a brighter note, Nehuen Perez and Joao Mario are back in contention after missing the last outing through suspension, bolstering the squad ahead of the trip to Arouca.
Arouca possible starting lineup:
Valido; Pinto, Lamba, Fontan, Weverson; Fukui, Simao; Trezza, Gozalbez, Sylla; Araujo
Porto possible starting lineup:
Costa; Pedro, Perez, Otavio, Moura, Varela, Viera, Joao Mario; Loader, Aghehowa, Mora
We say: Arouca 1-2 Porto
Porto may have found victories hard to come by in recent outings, but with the risk of losing further ground on the top two, they appear the more determined side heading into this clash.
Arouca have proven a tough nut to crack of late, yet the visitors are expected to dig deep and secure a vital win, drawing confidence from their strong record at the Municipal.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Adeyeye Oluwapelumi
