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Arouca
Benfica
Boavista
Braga
Casa Pia
Estoril
Estrela Amadora
Famalicao logo
Gil Vicente logo
Moreirense
Nacional
Porto
Rio Ave
Farense logo
Santa Clara
Sporting Lisbon
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Nacional
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 20
Feb 1, 2025 at 3.30pm UK
Estadio da Madeira
Arouca

Nacional
1 - 2
Arouca

Ulisses (45+1')
Vitor (24'), Penha (37'), Ulisses (52'), Esteves (71'), Abidi (87'), Sousa (90+8')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Gozalbez (5'), Araujo (26' pen.)
Santos (90+8')
Popovic (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Nacional and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 2-0 Nacional
Saturday, January 25 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Arouca

All competitions
Last Game: Arouca 1-0 Moreirense
Friday, January 24 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Nacional 1-1 Arouca

 After stumbling into the campaign, Arouca have turned things around of late and will be looking to keep the ball rolling this weekend. However, Nacional have proven tough to crack on home turf and we predict that they will do just enough to force a share of the spoils. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 50.06%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 25.97% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.6%) and 0-2 (8.29%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.

Result
NacionalDrawArouca
25.97% (0.062000000000001 0.06) 23.96% (0.0090000000000003 0.01) 50.06% (-0.072000000000003 -0.07)
Both teams to score 56.08% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.46% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)45.54% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.13% (0.0049999999999955 0)67.87% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.6% (0.051999999999992 0.05)31.4% (-0.050999999999998 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.23% (0.059000000000005 0.06)67.77% (-0.061000000000007 -0.06)
Arouca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.75% (-0.025000000000006 -0.03)18.25% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.71% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)49.29% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 25.97%
    Arouca 50.06%
    Draw 23.96%
NacionalDrawArouca
1-0 @ 6.64% (0.008 0.01)
2-1 @ 6.54% (0.012 0.01)
2-0 @ 3.85% (0.01 0.01)
3-1 @ 2.53% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.15% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.49% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 25.97%
1-1 @ 11.29% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 5.73% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-2 @ 5.56% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-3 @ 1.22% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 23.96%
0-1 @ 9.75% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
1-2 @ 9.6% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
0-2 @ 8.29% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-3 @ 5.45% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
0-3 @ 4.7% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.15% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 2.32% (-0.004 -0)
0-4 @ 2% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.34% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.47%
Total : 50.06%

Head to Head
Aug 25, 2024 3.30pm
Gameweek 3
Arouca
1-0
Nacional
Araujo (27')
Rodrigues (74'), Mantl (90+7')

Garcia (22'), Butzke (49'), Esteves (73'), Reis (76'), Vitor (90+3'), Dias (90+6'), Margarido (90+2')
> Preview
Jan 28, 2017 4pm
Nacional
1-1
Arouca
Agra (96' pen.)
Washington (48')
Miguel Prata Coelho (84')
Mateus (25'), Goiano (53'), Intima (55'), Sacramento (80'), Jubal (89')
Sacramento (93')
Aug 21, 2016 6pm
Arouca
2-0
Nacional
Crivellaro (24'), Zequinha (30')
Coelho (42')
May 1, 2016 6.15pm
Arouca
3-0
Nacional
Gonzalez (14', 64'), Mateus (38' pen.)
Coelho (11'), Adilson (31')

Washington (37'), Belkaroui (39'), Soares (49')
Belkaroui (40')
Jan 2, 2016 4pm
Nacional
2-2
Arouca
Agra (19' pen.), Gustavo (95')
Agra (44'), Correia (47')
Zequinha (14'), Simao (44')
Velasquez (18'), Rodrigues (35'), Simao (54'), Bracali (71'), Roque Junior (89')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sporting Lisbon25185267224559
2Benfica24182456183856
3Porto25155549202950
4Braga25155541221950
5Santa ClaraSanta Clara2512492625140
6Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes2591153427738
7Casa Pia2510693132-136
8Estoril PraiaEstoril259883340-735
9FamalicaoFamalicao2471072726131
10Rio AveRio Ave247892739-1229
11MoreirenseMoreirense2577113037-728
12AroucaArouca2577112438-1428
13Nacional2575132335-1226
14Gil Vicente2458112436-1223
15Estrela Amadora2558122136-1523
16AVS25411102035-1523
17SC FarenseFarense2538141736-1917
18BoavistaBoavista2536161642-2615
> Primeira Liga Full Table


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