Bayern's defence has struggled to cope amidst an injury crisis, and considering a number of defenders could miss out on Friday, Leipzig may have opportunities to capitalise on mistakes in the backline.
However, the visitors are yet to prove that they have overcome the issues that have plagued them in recent weeks, and given Bayern boast an exceptional home record, the hosts should be considered favourites.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 74.9%. A draw had a probability of 14.9% and a win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 10.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 3-0 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.8%), while for a RB Leipzig win it was 1-2 (3.03%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
0.03) 
-0.02) 
