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Bundesliga | Gameweek 19
Jan 25, 2025 at 2.30pm UK
Schwarzwald-Stadion
Bayern logo

Freiburg
1 - 2
Bayern

Ginter (68')
Kubler (52'), Atubolu (54'), Doan (76'), Schuster (90+2'), Grifo (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Kane (15'), Min-jae (54')
Kane (63'), Muller (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Stuttgart 4-0 Freiburg
Saturday, January 18 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Feyenoord 3-0 Bayern
Wednesday, January 22 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Freiburg 0-3 Bayern Munich

Bayern's phenomenal record in front of goal should make them clear favourites to win on Saturday despite not scoring last time out. Freiburg have struggled in the final third this campaign, and it would not be surprising if they failed to find the back of the net on the weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 60.73%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 19.95% and a draw had a probability of 19.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.45%) and 1-3 (7.28%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 2-1 (5.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Bayern Munich in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Bayern Munich.

Result
FreiburgDrawBayern Munich
19.95% (1.414 1.41) 19.31% (0.085000000000001 0.09) 60.73% (-1.505 -1.51)
Both teams to score 64.74% (2.403 2.4)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
69.35% (1.926 1.93)30.64% (-1.932 -1.93)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
48.03% (2.267 2.27)51.96% (-2.272 -2.27)
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.87% (2.513 2.51)28.13% (-2.519 -2.52)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.19% (3.082 3.08)63.8% (-3.088 -3.09)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.08% (0.19499999999999 0.19)9.92% (-0.2 -0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.16% (0.45700000000001 0.46)32.83% (-0.46299999999999 -0.46)
Score Analysis
    Freiburg 19.95%
    Bayern Munich 60.73%
    Draw 19.31%
FreiburgDrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 5.19% (0.217 0.22)
1-0 @ 3.54% (-0.129 -0.13)
3-2 @ 2.53% (0.29 0.29)
2-0 @ 2.24% (0.076 0.08)
3-1 @ 2.19% (0.234 0.23)
3-0 @ 0.95% (0.094 0.09)
Other @ 3.31%
Total : 19.95%
1-1 @ 8.18% (-0.224 -0.22)
2-2 @ 5.99% (0.302 0.3)
0-0 @ 2.79% (-0.311 -0.31)
3-3 @ 1.95% (0.238 0.24)
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 19.31%
1-2 @ 9.45% (-0.175 -0.18)
0-2 @ 7.45% (-0.688 -0.69)
1-3 @ 7.28% (-0.071 -0.07)
0-1 @ 6.45% (-0.656 -0.66)
0-3 @ 5.74% (-0.476 -0.48)
2-3 @ 4.62% (0.27 0.27)
1-4 @ 4.2% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-4 @ 3.32% (-0.244 -0.24)
2-4 @ 2.67% (0.178 0.18)
1-5 @ 1.94% (0.015 0.02)
0-5 @ 1.53% (-0.099 -0.1)
2-5 @ 1.23% (0.092 0.09)
3-4 @ 1.13% (0.146 0.15)
Other @ 3.74%
Total : 60.73%

How you voted: Freiburg vs Bayern

Freiburg
10.0%
Draw
16.0%
Bayern Munich
74.0%
50
Head to Head
Sep 1, 2024 4.30pm
Gameweek 2
Bayern
2-0
Freiburg
Kane (38' pen.), Muller (78')
Upamecano (31')
Mar 1, 2024 7.30pm
Gameweek 24
Freiburg
2-2
Bayern
Gunter (12'), Holer (87')
Holer (90+4')
Tel (35'), Musiala (75')
Tel (73'), Pavlovic (79')
Oct 8, 2023 4.30pm
Gameweek 7
Bayern
3-0
Freiburg
Coman (12', 85'), Sane (25')
Mazraoui (16')
Apr 8, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 27
Freiburg
0-1
Bayern
De Ligt (51')
Apr 4, 2023 7.45pm
Quarter-Finals
Bayern
1-2
Freiburg
Upamecano (19')
Hofler (27'), Holer (90+5' pen.)
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern25194274235161
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen25158255302553
3Mainz 05Mainz25135742261644
4Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt25126751391242
5Freiburg2512583436-241
6RB Leipzig2510963933639
7Wolfsburg25108749391038
8Stuttgart2510784439537
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach25114103938137
10Borussia DortmundDortmund25105104539635
11Augsburg259882835-735
12Werder Bremen2596103849-1133
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin2576122337-1427
14Hoffenheim2568113247-1526
15St Pauli2564151930-1122
16VfL BochumVfL Bochum2546152550-2518
17Holstein Kiel2545163761-2417
18Heidenheim2544172851-2316


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