Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigre win with a probability of 39.18%. A win for Deportes Tolima had a probability of 33.62% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigre win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (7.09%). The likeliest Deportes Tolima win was 1-0 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tigre would win this match.