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League One | Gameweek 36
Mar 2, 2024 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Port Vale

Derby
3 - 0
Port Vale

Lopata (5' og.), Gayle (44'), Sibley (58')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Ojo (40'), Massey (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Port Vale, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Derby 1-2 Charlton
Tuesday, February 27 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Port Vale 2-2 Fleetwood
Tuesday, February 27 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-0 Port Vale

Derby may enter Saturday's contest off the back of consecutive defeats, but we think that they will do enough to get the better of a Port Vale side that has lost each of their last four away matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 65.06%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Port Vale had a probability of 14.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.45%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.66%), while for a Port Vale win it was 0-1 (4.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawPort Vale
65.06% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01) 20.31%14.63% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
Both teams to score 49.5% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.86% (0.010000000000005 0.01)45.14% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.51% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)67.49% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.91% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)13.09%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.29%39.71%
Port Vale Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.96% (0.015000000000001 0.02)43.04% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.68% (0.012 0.01)79.32% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 65.05%
    Port Vale 14.63%
    Draw 20.31%
Derby CountyDrawPort Vale
2-0 @ 11.64% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-0 @ 11.45% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.82%
3-0 @ 7.89% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 6.66% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-0 @ 4.01% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-1 @ 3.38%
3-2 @ 2.81% (0.0010000000000003 0)
5-0 @ 1.63%
4-2 @ 1.43% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-1 @ 1.38%
Other @ 2.96%
Total : 65.05%
1-1 @ 9.66%
0-0 @ 5.63% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-2 @ 4.14% (0.0020000000000007 0)
Other @ 0.88%
Total : 20.31%
0-1 @ 4.75%
1-2 @ 4.07% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-2 @ 2% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.16% (0.0010000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 1.14% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 1.5%
Total : 14.63%

How you voted: Derby vs Port Vale

Derby County
89.3%
Draw
10.7%
Port Vale
0.0%
28
Head to Head
Nov 28, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 20
Port Vale
0-1
Derby

Iacovitti (71'), Loft (84')
Jan 24, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 26
Port Vale
1-2
Derby
Ojo (56')
Oct 8, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 14
Derby
1-2
Port Vale
Collins (5')
Harrison (55' pen.), Wilson (66')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Portsmouth442713475393694
2Derby CountyDerby442681075373886
3Bolton WanderersBolton442411981483383
4Peterborough UnitedPeterborough432481184562880
5Barnsley4421121179601975
6Oxford UnitedOxford Utd4421101376542273
7Lincoln CityLincoln4419141163372671
8Blackpool4420101460431770
9Stevenage4418131354441067
10Leyton Orient441711165053-362
11Northampton TownNorthampton44178195563-859
12Wycombe WanderersWycombe431513155553258
13Exeter CityExeter441610184358-1558
14Bristol Rovers44169195264-1257
15Wigan AthleticWigan441810165955456
16Charlton AthleticCharlton441119146363052
17Reading441511186365-250
18Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury44138233363-3047
19Cambridge UnitedCambridge431210213859-2146
20Burton Albion441110233662-2643
21Cheltenham TownCheltenham43118243761-2441
22Port Vale441010244172-3140
23Fleetwood TownFleetwood44813234572-2737
RCarlisle UnitedCarlisle4479284076-3630


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