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League One | Gameweek 13
Feb 27, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Charlton Athletic

Derby
1 - 2
Charlton

Cashin (39')
Bradley (22'), Wildsmith (64')
FT(HT: 1-0)
May (65' pen.), Anderson (80')
Gillesphey (82'), Aneke (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Derby County and Charlton Athletic, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Barnsley 2-1 Derby
Saturday, February 24 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Charlton 0-0 Portsmouth
Saturday, February 24 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-1 Charlton Athletic

Although Derby experienced a disappointing at the weekend, they have won seven of their last eight home games against Charlton, and we think that they will draw inspiration from that record to clinch a narrow victory in Tuesday's contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 63.84%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Charlton Athletic had a probability of 16.31%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 1-0 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.27%), while for a Charlton Athletic win it was 1-2 (4.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.

Result
Derby CountyDrawCharlton Athletic
63.84% (0.176 0.18) 19.85% (-0.055 -0.05) 16.31% (-0.115 -0.11)
Both teams to score 55.14% (-0.073 -0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.29% (0.033999999999999 0.03)39.71% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.94% (0.033000000000001 0.03)62.06% (-0.028000000000006 -0.03)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.21% (0.060000000000002 0.06)11.79% (-0.055 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63% (0.122 0.12)37% (-0.117 -0.12)
Charlton Athletic Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.52% (-0.121 -0.12)37.48% (0.126 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.73% (-0.12 -0.12)74.27% (0.126 0.13)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 63.84%
    Charlton Athletic 16.31%
    Draw 19.85%
Derby CountyDrawCharlton Athletic
2-0 @ 10.1% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
2-1 @ 9.91% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-0 @ 9.45% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
3-0 @ 7.2% (0.037 0.04)
3-1 @ 7.06% (0.013 0.01)
4-0 @ 3.85% (0.029 0.03)
4-1 @ 3.78% (0.016 0.02)
3-2 @ 3.47% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.85% (0.0010000000000001 0)
5-0 @ 1.65% (0.016 0.02)
5-1 @ 1.61% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 3.92%
Total : 63.84%
1-1 @ 9.27% (-0.023 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.86% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-0 @ 4.42% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.13% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 19.85%
1-2 @ 4.55% (-0.026999999999999 -0.03)
0-1 @ 4.34% (-0.021 -0.02)
0-2 @ 2.13% (-0.017 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.59% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.49% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 2.22%
Total : 16.31%

How you voted: Derby vs Charlton

Derby County
70.8%
Draw
9.2%
Charlton Athletic
20.0%
65
Head to Head
Feb 3, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 31
Charlton
0-1
Derby

Ramsay (70'), Kanu (82')
Mendez-Laing (31')
Adams (41'), Cashin (51'), Sibley (68'), Vickers (90+1'), Hourihane (90+5')
Feb 18, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 33
Derby
2-0
Charlton
McGoldrick (9' pen.), Cashin (69')
Aug 6, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 2
Charlton
1-0
Derby
Taylor (62')
Sessegnon (73'), Morgan (76')
Dec 30, 2019 7.45pm
Gameweek 25
Derby
2-1
Charlton
Knight (10', 77')
Holmes (87')
Bielik (17')
Taylor (83' pen.)
Sarr (39'), Gallagher (69'), Solly (80'), Pratley (81'), Dempsey (90')
Oct 19, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 12
Charlton
3-0
Derby
Bonne (6'), Sarr (48'), Gallagher (67')
Forster-Caskey (65')

Waghorn (57'), Shinnie (64')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Portsmouth432613472373591
2Derby CountyDerby442681075373886
3Bolton WanderersBolton432410979463382
4Peterborough UnitedPeterborough422381180552577
5Barnsley4321121077572075
6Oxford UnitedOxford Utd4321101276532373
7Blackpool4420101460431770
8Lincoln CityLincoln4318141162372568
9Stevenage4418131354441067
10Leyton Orient441711165053-362
11Northampton TownNorthampton44178195563-859
12Exeter CityExeter441610184358-1558
13Wigan AthleticWigan441810165955456
14Wycombe WanderersWycombe421413155352155
15Bristol Rovers43159195164-1354
16Charlton AthleticCharlton441119146363052
17Reading441511186365-250
18Cambridge UnitedCambridge421210203858-2046
19Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury43137233161-3046
20Burton Albion431110223560-2543
21Port Vale431010234070-3040
22Cheltenham TownCheltenham42108243560-2538
23Fleetwood TownFleetwood43813224468-2437
RCarlisle UnitedCarlisle4479284076-3630


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