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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 43.84%. A win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 30.13% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Plymouth Argyle win was 0-1 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Plymouth Argyle would win this match.
Result | ||
MK Dons | Draw | Plymouth Argyle |
43.84% ( -0.82) | 26.03% ( 0.27) | 30.13% ( 0.55) |
Both teams to score 52.42% ( -0.54) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.27% ( -0.84) | 51.73% ( 0.84) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.49% ( -0.73) | 73.5% ( 0.73) |
MK Dons Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.52% ( -0.75) | 23.48% ( 0.75) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.5% ( -1.1) | 57.5% ( 1.1) |
Plymouth Argyle Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.5% ( -0.04) | 31.49% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.11% ( -0.04) | 67.88% ( 0.04) |
Score Analysis |
MK Dons | Draw | Plymouth Argyle |
1-0 @ 10.71% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 8.97% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 7.76% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 4.33% ( -0.15) 3-0 @ 3.75% ( -0.13) 3-2 @ 2.5% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 1.57% ( -0.09) 4-0 @ 1.36% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.97% Total : 43.83% | 1-1 @ 12.38% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 7.39% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.07) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.03% | 0-1 @ 8.54% ( 0.27) 1-2 @ 7.15% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 4.94% ( 0.15) 1-3 @ 2.75% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.85% Total : 30.13% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 27 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 46 | 19 | 27 | 63 |
2 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 29 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 55 | 30 | 25 | 59 |
3 | Wrexham | 29 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 43 | 25 | 18 | 55 |
4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 46 | 29 | 17 | 53 |
5 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 41 | 26 | 15 | 49 |
6 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 47 |
7 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 46 | 1 | 47 |
8 | Reading | 29 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 45 |
9 | Leyton Orient | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 25 | 15 | 44 |
10 | Barnsley | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 43 |
11 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 40 |
12 | Stevenage | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 40 |
13 | Blackpool | 29 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 39 |
14 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 37 |
15 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 37 |
16 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 34 |
17 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 33 |
18 | Exeter CityExeter | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 32 |
19 | Bristol Rovers | 28 | 9 | 4 | 15 | 28 | 44 | -16 | 31 |
20 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 30 |
21 | Burton Albion | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 26 |
22 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 30 | 49 | -19 | 26 |
23 | Crawley TownCrawley | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 30 | 52 | -22 | 24 |
24 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 23 |
> League One Full Table |