Nations League | Relegation Playoff | 1st Leg
Mar 21, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Estadio Municipal de Loule
Gibraltar0 - 1Lithuania
FT(HT: 0-0)
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Gibraltar 0-6 Netherlands
Tuesday, November 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Tuesday, November 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 8 | 26 | 22 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Greece | 8 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Republic of Ireland | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 8 | -41 | 0 |
We said: Gibraltar 0-2 Lithuania
Whether it would be more beneficial in the short-term to drop into League D given that a routine playoff spot could be on the cards is up for debate, but Lithuania will see this tie as an opportunity to claim two important wins which will help morale and their World Ranking. Gibraltar had shown signs of improvement when being promoted to League C a few years back, but 2023 saw them regress heavily, and back-to-back defeats are likely this week. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lithuania win with a probability of 76.49%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Gibraltar had a probability of 5.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lithuania win was 0-2 with a probability of 18.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (18.21%) and 0-3 (12.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.01%), while for a Gibraltar win it was 1-0 (3.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 18.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lithuania would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gibraltar | Draw | Lithuania |
5.99% ( -0.54) | 17.52% ( 0.43) | 76.49% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 27.74% ( -3.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.2% ( -3.27) | 56.8% ( 3.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.26% ( -2.69) | 77.73% ( 2.69) |
| Gibraltar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 31.98% ( -3.53) | 68.02% ( 3.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 5.77% ( -1.46) | 94.23% ( 1.45) |
| Lithuania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.75% ( -0.94) | 13.25% ( 0.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 59.97% ( -1.93) | 40.03% ( 1.93) |
| Score Analysis |
Gibraltar 5.99%
Lithuania 76.47%
Draw 17.52%
| Gibraltar | Draw | Lithuania |
| 1-0 @ 3.47% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 1.35% ( -0.25)Other @ 1.16% Total : 5.99% | 0-0 @ 9.01% ( 1.07) 1-1 @ 7.02% ( -0.28)2-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.31)Other @ 0.12% Total : 17.52% | 0-2 @ 18.4% ( 0.99) 0-1 @ 18.21% ( 1.58)0-3 @ 12.4% ( 0.24)1-2 @ 7.09% ( -0.55)0-4 @ 6.27% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 4.78% ( -0.56)0-5 @ 2.53% ( -0.13)1-4 @ 2.42% ( -0.38)1-5 @ 0.98% ( -0.19)2-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.25)Other @ 2.47% Total : 76.47% |
How you voted: Gibraltar vs Lithuania
Gibraltar
20.0%Draw
12.3%Lithuania
67.7%65
Form Guide
