Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid will lock horns in the Copa del Rey on Wednesday night, with a spot in the quarter-finals of the competition on offer for both sides.
The home side have beaten Panaderia Pulido, Zamora and Leganes to advance to this stage, while Atletico thumped Rayo Majadahonda in the last round of the competition.
Match preview
© Reuters
Real Sociedad have won the Copa del Rey on three separate occasions, the last of which was in 2019-20, when they beat Athletic Bilbao 1-0 in the final, and the Basque outfit will fancy their chances of making a strong challenge for the trophy if they overcome Atletico in the round of 16.
The White and Blues have had to win three matches in this season's competition to advance to this stage, overcoming Panaderia Pulido, Zamora and Leganes.
Real Sociedad are competing on three fronts this season, as they have also advanced to the knockout round of the Europa League, with RB Leipzig their opponents over two legs towards the end of next month.
Imanol Alguacil's side will enter this match off the back of a 1-0 win over Celta Vigo in the league, and a total of 33 points from 20 games has left them in fifth spot in the table, level on points with Atletico.
Real Sociedad actually have an identical record to champions Atletico in the league this season, with both sides winning nine, drawing six and losing five of their 20 matches.
© Reuters
Atletico are in a battle to secure a top-four spot in La Liga this season rather than a title race, as they sit 16 points behind division leaders Real Madrid, who are seemingly battling Sevilla for the championship.
Diego Simeone's side, who will face Manchester United in the last-16 stage of the Champions League, have been far from their best this season, and they will enter this match off the back of a 2-1 defeat to Athletic Bilbao in the semi-finals of the Spanish Super Cup on January 13.
Atletico have only had to win one match to reach this stage of the Copa del Rey, thumping Rayo Majadahonda 5-0, and this competition surely represents their best chance of securing some silverware this season.
The Red and Whites have won the Copa del Rey on 10 occasions, the last of which was in 2013, beating bitter rivals Real Madrid 2-1 in the final of the competition at Bernabeu.
Atletico are unbeaten against Real Sociedad since September 2019, but the points were shared in a 2-2 draw when they locked horns in the league match at Wanda Metropolitano back in October.
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- L
- D
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Real Sociedad will be missing Martin Zubimendi, Alexander Isak, Ander Barrenetxea, Alex Sola, Nacho Monreal and Carlos Fernandez for Wednesday's contest through injury.
The Basque side could switch to a 4-3-3 formation for the Copa del Rey contest, with Portu and Adnan Januzaj potentially playing alongside Mikel Oyarzabal in the final third of the field.
There will be a change between the sticks, with Mathew Ryan in line to start, while Joseba Zaldua is likely to earn a spot in the team at right-back for the Basque outfit.
As for Atletico, Geoffrey Kondogbia will miss the contest through suspension, while Marcos Llorente and Antoine Griezmann are on the sidelines through injury.
Simeone is expected to select a strong XI for the contest, with Koke, Yannick Carrasco, Thomas Lemar and Luis Suarez all likely to named in the side.
Matheus Cunha could keep out Joao Felix to feature in the final third once again, while the visitors are expected to switch to a back four, with Renan Lodi and Felipe potentially coming into the side.
Real Sociedad possible starting lineup:
Ryan; Zaldua, Le Normand, Elustondo, Rico; Merino, Guevara, Rafinha; Portu, Oyarzabal, Januzaj
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Vrsaljko, Felipe, Hermoso, Lodi; Carrasco, De Paul, Koke, Lemar; Suarez, Cunha
We say: Real Sociedad 2-1 Atletico Madrid
Atletico are struggling to find their best form at the moment, and Real Sociedad will have had much longer to prepare for this contest; we are expecting it to be a tight match on Wednesday night but are backing the home side to emerge victorious within 90 minutes.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 36.88%. A win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 36.67% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.16%) and 0-2 (6.31%). The likeliest Real Sociedad win was 1-0 (9.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Real Sociedad would win this match.
