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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 43.18%. A win for Schalke 04 had a probability of 32.38% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.48%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Schalke 04 win was 1-2 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.
Result | ||
Freiburg | Draw | Schalke 04 |
43.18% ( -0.01) | 24.43% ( 0.01) | 32.38% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 58.77% ( -0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.08% ( -0.06) | 43.92% ( 0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.69% ( -0.05) | 66.31% ( 0.05) |
Freiburg Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.53% ( -0.03) | 20.46% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.07% ( -0.04) | 52.93% ( 0.04) |
Schalke 04 Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.89% ( -0.03) | 26.11% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.83% ( -0.04) | 61.17% ( 0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Freiburg | Draw | Schalke 04 |
2-1 @ 9.03% 1-0 @ 8.48% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.72% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.78% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.56% 3-2 @ 3.21% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.89% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.41% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0) Other @ 2.84% Total : 43.18% | 1-1 @ 11.38% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.06% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.34% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.44% ( -0) Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.43% | 1-2 @ 7.64% ( -0) 0-1 @ 7.18% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.82% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.42% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.71% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.16% 1-4 @ 1.15% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 2.39% Total : 32.38% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 47 | 13 | 34 | 36 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 37 | 21 | 16 | 32 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 27 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 27 |
5 | Mainz 05Mainz | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 20 | 8 | 25 |
6 | Werder Bremen | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 25 |
7 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 24 |
8 | Freiburg | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 24 |
9 | Stuttgart | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 22 |
11 | Wolfsburg | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 21 |
12 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
13 | Augsburg | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 16 |
14 | St Pauli | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 14 |
15 | Hoffenheim | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 14 |
16 | Heidenheim | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 10 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 8 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 3 |
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