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Bundesliga | Gameweek 33
May 11, 2024 at 5.30pm UK
Mewa Arena
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Mainz
3 - 0
Dortmund

Barreiro (12'), Jae-sung (19', 23')
Hanche-Olsen (45+1'), Barreiro (56')
FT(HT: 3-0)

Reus (41'), Schlotterbeck (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last Game: Heidenheim 1-1 Mainz
Sunday, May 5 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: PSG 0-1 Dortmund
Tuesday, May 7 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Mainz 05 1-2 Borussia Dortmund

 Dortmund have won each of their last six away games against Mainz, and even with a number of changes, we still think that the Champions League finalists will do enough to claim all three points in Saturday's contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 49.24%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.15%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawBorussia Dortmund
49.24% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01) 22.41% (0.0030000000000001 0) 28.34% (0.004999999999999 0)
Both teams to score 63.62% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.49% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)36.5% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.35% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)58.65% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.82% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)15.17% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.21% (-0.012 -0.01)43.79% (0.012 0.01)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.01% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)24.99% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.36% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)59.64% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 49.24%
    Borussia Dortmund 28.34%
    Draw 22.41%
Mainz 05DrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 9.35% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
1-0 @ 7.15% (0.0010000000000003 0)
2-0 @ 6.74%
3-1 @ 5.88% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-0 @ 4.24% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-2 @ 4.07% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-1 @ 2.77% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 2% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.92% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
5-1 @ 1.04% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 4.09%
Total : 49.24%
1-1 @ 9.92% (0.0019999999999989 0)
2-2 @ 6.48%
0-0 @ 3.79% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-3 @ 1.88% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.34%
Total : 22.41%
1-2 @ 6.88% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-1 @ 5.26% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-2 @ 3.65% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-3 @ 3.18%
2-3 @ 3% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 1.69% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 1.1%
2-4 @ 1.04%
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 28.34%

How you voted: Mainz vs Dortmund

Mainz 05
15.8%
Draw
11.9%
Borussia Dortmund
72.3%
101
Head to Head
Dec 19, 2023 7.30pm
Gameweek 16
Dortmund
1-1
Mainz
Brandt (29')
Van den Berg (43')
Bell (39'), Burkardt (85'), Krauss (90'), Barkok (90+2')
> Preview
May 27, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 34
Dortmund
2-2
Mainz
Guerreiro (69'), Sule (90+6')
Guerreiro (40')
Hanche-Olsen (15'), Onisiwo (24')
Fernandes (71')
> Preview
Jan 25, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 17
Mainz
1-2
Dortmund
Jae-sung (2')
Ryerson (4'), Reyna (90+3')
> Preview
Mar 16, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 25
Mainz
0-1
Dortmund

Bell (43'), Stach (49'), Lucoqui (90+2')
Witsel (87')
Wolf (43'), Dahoud (44'), Pongracic (45+3'), Witsel (90+3')
> Preview
Oct 16, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 8
Dortmund
3-1
Mainz
Reus (3'), Braut Haaland (54' pen., 90+4')
Schulz (13'), Akanji (35')
Burkardt (87')
Bell (50'), Svensson (54'), Ingvartsen (64'), Tauer (71'), Niakhate (89')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern25194274235161
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen25158255302553
3Mainz 05Mainz25135742261644
4Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt25126751391242
5Freiburg2512583436-241
6RB Leipzig2510963933639
7Wolfsburg25108749391038
8Stuttgart2510784439537
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach25114103938137
10Borussia DortmundDortmund25105104539635
11Augsburg259882835-735
12Werder Bremen2596103849-1133
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin2576122337-1427
14Hoffenheim2568113247-1526
15St Pauli2564151930-1122
16VfL BochumVfL Bochum2546152550-2518
17Holstein Kiel2545163761-2417
18Heidenheim2544172851-2316
> Bundesliga Full Table


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